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The Raiders haven’t been officially eliminated from the playoffs — it only feels that way after their gut-wrenching loss at home to the Chargers Thursday night.
Marcus Mariota came on in relief of an injured Derek Carr and played well, throwing better than any reasonable observer could have expected and using his legs to change the game. But in the end it wasn’t enough as the Raiders lost 30-27 in overtime.
Depending on the severity of Carr’s groin injury, Jon Gruden may need to call on Mariota again next Saturday against the Miami Dolphins.
Before the Raiders get to that point, though, they’ll need some help Sunday to keep their flickering playoff hopes aflame.
Statistics and projections website FiveThirtyEight gives them a 2 percent chance at sneaking into the playoffs after the loss Thursday night. The New York Times’ projection is more bullish at 6 percent.
Even if the Raiders win out, FiveThirtyEight gives them just a 9 percent chance of getting the necessary results to move up into one of three AFC wild-card berths.
Jon Gruden said Friday he and his team will remain motivated to make the playoffs until they are mathematically eliminated.
“Anybody that doesn’t think we’re still in this is mistaken. We still need some things to go our way. It would help if some of these officiating calls would go our way too. But we’ve got to keep playing,” Gruden said.
“We’ve got to find a way to win our eighth game. If we can win our eighth game and get a little help from around the league we can stay in it until the final week of the season like we were last year. We’ve got to keep true to ourselves, stay with the process and good things will happen.”
The Raiders won’t be eliminated Sunday, even if the Ravens, Colts, Browns, Titans and Dolphins all win. Gruden can still hold that sliver of hope over the players as a carrot in practice next week.
But a loss to Miami next weekend would eliminate the Raiders from contention.
Technically, the Raiders could lose another game and still make the playoffs — if they beat Miami and lose to Denver, they could still sneak in at 8-8 if they end up in a tie with the right team or teams, though the odds of such a scenario are below 1 percent, according to both projection sites.
Winning both remaining games opens up several paths for the Raiders, but they’d likely end up tied with someone else at 9-7. A two-team tie with the Browns would result in the Raiders moving ahead after their win in Cleveland earlier this year. Similarly, a tie with the the Colts would leave them out after last week’s loss. Next Saturday’s game with the Dolphins will decide who carries that tiebreaker in the event of a two-way deadlock. A three-way knot brings in more tiebreakers, likely to be determined by conference record — all five teams in question are within a game.
Of course, the tiebreaker scenarios will likely be moot for the Raiders, who must gain ground against teams who have easier games remaining.
The Ravens and Colts both play the 1-12 Jaguars over the final three weeks, and Baltimore also plays the Bengals, (2-10-1) and the Giants (5-8). The Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule in the league based on opponents’ win percentage, while the Browns and Colts are tied for the fourth-easiest. Cleveland, which offers the Raiders the best tiebreaker scenario, plays against the Giants and the Jets, who are winless in 13 games (Remember that MetLife miracle? That’s the Raiders’ only win in more than a month).
Of the teams in play, only the Dolphins have a tougher road ahead than the Raiders, with games against the Patriots, Bills and Raiders remaining, but they currently have a 1.5-game lead over Gruden’s team.
Staff writer Jerry McDonald contributed to this story.
