As millions of Californians on Monday entered into the strictest lockdown since the first months of the pandemic, a dangerous coronavirus surge was inundating hospitals with patients, the largest school system in the state shuttered, and outdoor playgrounds were forced to close in an effort to stem further infections.
The situation has become so bleak that Bay Area hospitals were canceling elective surgeries and anticipating a need to start transferring patients to other facilities in the coming days. The overall ICU capacity in the San Joaquin Valley region sank to a frightening 6.3%. Los Angeles public schools on Monday announced a shutdown for all in-person tutoring and special services, effectively ending what little face-to-face teaching was occurring in the second-largest school district in the country.
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California’s new stay-at-home order took effect Monday in more than 80% of the state and will extend at least through Christmas — another blow to a devastating year.
For the first time in the pandemic, the state is averaging 20,000 new coronavirus cases per day — a rate five times higher than at the start of November. And, on Monday, the state surpassed 30,000 cases in a single day, setting a new record. More Californians also are in the hospital with COVID-19 than ever before, tallying more than 10,000, with at least 2,200 in the ICU, according to the latest data from the state.
As of Monday, Santa Clara County, the hardest-hit in the Bay Area, maintained just 50 empty ICU beds for its 2 million residents, with many facilities left with fewer than five open. The county on Monday smashed its record for new coronavirus cases reported in a single day with 1,431 cases — the first time the county has ever hit four digits in a single day, according to data compiled by this organization.
“The hospitals are doing their parts. They are working very hard to balance the load among themselves,” said Dr. Ahmad Kamala, Santa Clara County COVID-19 director of healthcare preparedness. “… But they cannot do this alone. We need to all redouble our efforts right now to help prevent the spread of COVID.”
At Regional Medical Center in East San Jose, one of the hardest-hit hospitals in the Bay Area, all 40 ICU beds were full by Monday night, said hospital spokeswoman Sarah Sherwood. The hospital had a total of 70 COVID-19 patients on Monday, topping the previous high of 67 seen during April’s first wave of the pandemic.
“If it gets really full at the end of the week, we will look at transfers,” Sherwood said.
At Regional’s sister hospital Good Samaritan, where an overflow of patients can be sent, the number of COVID-19 patients has increased from the teens last month to 39 on Monday, she said. But space is available: “I can bet you by the end of the week, they’ll be opening a new floor at Good Sam,” she said.
Public health experts say the critical conditions across the state mark the beginning of the anticipated increased caseload resulting from hazardous mingling during the Thanksgiving holiday.
“I think we’re far enough out to say that this is a consequence of Thanksgiving week and travel and mixing,” said George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco. “In California, the change in slope, the acceleration in cases, looks very similar to what happened in Canada after the Canadian Thanksgiving.”
Since hospitalizations and deaths typically lag about two to three weeks behind cases, the steep rise in cases suggests an inevitable worsening of the already dire situation in hospitals around the state.
And as if the explosive surge in California’s coronavirus cases wasn’t creating enough concern, some worry that the current uptick related to Thanksgiving will bleed right into the Christmas and New Years holidays.
“In terms of the relationship to the winter surge in coronavirus cases, the time of Thanksgiving and Christmas could not be worse,” said Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, chair of UC San Francisco’s Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics.
“The aggressive measures to put California on track to be shut down for Christmas is recognizing the existing rise in California and the fact that as we head into the winter holidays, we will likely have even higher rates in California.”
The state’s latest stay-at-home order will span through Christmas and New Years’ for at least five Bay Area counties that proactively implemented the restrictions this week, and through Christmas for the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California regions, which both fell below the 15% ICU availability threshold Gov. Gavin Newsom set last week to invoke additional restrictions. The restrictions in the Bay Area will last until at least Jan. 4 while those in San Joaquin and Southern California will remain in effect until at least Dec. 28.
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However, a handful of counties are continuing on a different path: San Mateo County, which did not join other Bay Area counties in imposing new restrictions last week, said Monday it will continue to abstain, suggesting there is no evidence that the new restrictions will help contain the virus, particularly without stronger enforcement.
While the governor’s latest order has frustrated many businesses and residents who are tired of nearly a year full of restrictions, Newsom faced a particular backlash from parents and legislators for his decision to close outdoor playgrounds in this latest wave. A dozen state legislators last week sent Newsom a letter urging him to reconsider the closures given the importance of outdoor activity to the “mental and physical health of children.”
Still, citing how effective lockdowns appeared to be in parts of Europe recently, Bibbins-Domingo said that the new state restrictions provide a much-needed route to bending the curve of the pandemic here in California.
“If we start to adopt the new measures, we can turn this corner and turn the rising tide of cases,” she said. “That won’t immediately turn around hospitalizations, but it will be essential to getting through this winter with room in our hospitals for not only COVID patients but any patient that might need care in our intensive care units.”
Staff writers Evan Webeck and Julia Sulek contributed to this story.
