Over the next few weeks, Warriors beat reporter Wes Goldberg will provide his thoughts and observations about what is happening in the NBA bubble at Disney World.
1. Get them the Greek 🇬🇷
On Tuesday, the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks lost in five games to the fifth-seeded Miami Heat in the second round of the playoffs, setting in motion rampant questions about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future.
However Antetokounmpo, the winner of this season’s Defensive Player of the Year award and expected to be named the league’s MVP for the second straight season, said he will not leave the Bucks, but he’s a free agent in 2021.
How we got here: This is the second straight season the Bucks have had the best record in the league but failed to reach the NBA Finals.
- Last season, Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors ousted the Bucks in the Eastern Conference finals. But with Leonard moving to the Western Conference and Kevin Durant sitting out the season with an Achilles injury, this was Antetokounmpo’s best chance to win his first championship.
- The Bucks’ decision not to re-sign guard Malcolm Brogdon in order to trim payroll looks worse now. Meanwhile, teams like the Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks and Toronto Raptors have all willingly spent in order to bring championships to their respective cities over the last decade.
By the numbers: The Bucks were just the 12th team in NBA history to compile a plus-10 point differential in the regular season. As Ben Golliver of the Washington Post points out, eight of the other 11 teams won the championship, and none was eliminated as early in the postseason as Milwaukee.
- Antetokounmpo can sign a “supermax” contract extension this fall, which could be worth upwards of $250 million over five years. If he does not, he will have one year left on his current contract and will become a free agent in 2021.
The big picture: Asked if he would demand a trade this offseason, Antetokounmpo told Yahoo Sports’ Chris Haynes: “It’s not happening. That’s not happening … Some see a wall and go in [another direction]. I plow through it. We just have to get better as a team, individually and get right back at it next season.”
Despite those comments, teams around the league will be monitoring Antetokounmpo’s situation over the next few months. Acquiring the 25-year-old would vault any team into title contention for years to come.
What’s next: The Bucks will explore trading for Chris Paul, according to the New York Times’ Marc Stein — an option that became increasingly likely after the Oklahoma City Thunder and head coach Billy Donovan parted ways this week.
- Still, teams will be planning their courtship of Antetokounmpo, whether he’s available this year or next. The Raptors, Mavericks and Heat have recently been rumored as possible landing spots for Antetokounmpo. All can create maximum cap space in 2021.
The Warriors can’t create that cap space, eliminating them as a potential landing spot if Antetokounmpo becomes a free agent. The only hope they have is to land him in a trade. The best package they could put together would include Andrew Wiggins, the No. 2 pick, Minnesota’s lightly-protected pick in 2021, their own picks in 2022 and 2026 and swap rights to picks in the years in between.
Is that deal better than a potential package from Toronto that would include Pascal Siakam and several first-round picks, or Miami, which could offer Tyler Herro? Would Antetokounmpo rather wait for free agency than deplete the team he hopes to win a championship with?
The bottom line: At some point in the next 12 months, Antetokounmpo will decide where he wants to play.
- He may look at the underwhelming performance of his head coach, Mike Budenholzer, and decide he needs a proven head coach and higher-caliber teammates.
- While he must have been impressed with Jimmy Butler, Erik Spoelstra and the rest of the Heat in their series, he has shown an affinity for Stephen Curry in the past and, like Spoelstra and Toronto’s Nick Nurse, Steve Kerr has a track record of coaching the league’s best players.
- If Antetokounmpo does not demand a trade, nothing is likely to happen. The Bucks, by all accounts, would rather chase one more chance at a title than trade him prematurely, holding out hope that winning a championship could convince him to stay.
By saying he isn’t leaving, he signaled that he wants to nip any trade talk in the bud and set up one final run in Milwaukee before becoming a free agent. In doing so, he may have quashed any of the Warriors’ dreams of landing him.
2. Speaking of length…
On an episode of the “Locked On Warriors” podcast this week, Warriors assistant coach Jarron Collins spoke about how the Warriors can improve their defense next season — a critical step in reclaiming their place among the league’s best teams.
What he said: “We’re going to have some different schemes and some wrinkles that we’ll add,” Collins said. “You got to be versatile in today’s NBA, and you’re seeing in the playoffs right now where some players are just absolutely going off and you got to be able to send multiple defenders to them.
“Having Andrew (Wiggins), having Draymond (Green), having Klay (Thompson), having length out there on the perimeter to defend at the point of attack is crucial.”
By the numbers: Last season, the Warriors posted a defensive rating of 113.0, the 26th-worst mark in the league.
- That is 4.4 more points per 100 possessions than their defensive rating last season, which ranked 11th in the league.
- The Warriors were 20th in the league at protecting the rim, but last in defending the 3-point line.
Around the league, teams with length are thriving. The Boston Celtics’ duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum wreaked havoc on the Raptors’ offense. The Clippers, with Leonard and Paul George, have limited the once-volcanic Jamal Murray to 17.7 points per game on 37.7% shooting after averaging 31.6 points per game on 55% shooting against the Utah Jazz in the first round. Miami’s horde of long dudes built a wall between Antetokounmpo and the basket for three games.
Bottom line: The Warriors defensive struggles mostly had to do with Thompson being sidelined for the season after undergoing knee surgery, Curry and Kevon Looney missing most of the season with injuries, and the departures of Durant, Andre Iguodola and Shaun Livingston. But only Thompson, Curry and Looney are returning next season, and all are recovering from major injuries.
Kerr often talks about how length is the most important asset on defense. Even after trading for the 6-foot-7 Wiggins at the deadline, the Warriors need to add more. Specifically, as Collins said, on the perimeter.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4b2TqwE4nqCuRBFoXpOJqq
3. Mail 📬
What are your views on Draymond Green? His savant-like IQ, leadership and other intangibles are there but with declining athleticism and that shot most likely never returning, can he still contribute in ways like he did before or there would be serious downgrade in his performance?
— maa_kasam
One of the quiet developments of last season was that Green proved (again) why he is indispensable to these Warriors. Without Curry and Thompson, Green was saddled with young players who needed his mentorship. Though frustration early in the season led to some public outbursts, Green managed to impress the coaching staff and front office with his maturity and willingness to coach an otherwise young team as the season went on.
He is no longer the athlete he once was, and the 2015-16 season in which he shot 38.8% from 3-point range seems more and more like an anomaly, but he will be a key part of Golden State’s defense improving from the bottom five in defensive rating to the top half of the league.
Any updates on Kevon Looney’s health?
— Will Harris
Looney is progressing well and has returned to the court to resume basketball activities. We — and the Warriors front office — will know more once voluntary group workouts begin later this month and he has the opportunity to play with his teammates in scrimmages.
Which position are the Warriors are looking for in the upcoming draft? A wing or a big man? Thanks.
— SnooCupcakes4632
As I reported after the draft lottery, the Warriors are much higher on this class of perimeter players than centers. Though former Memphis center James Wiseman will likely be there at No. 2, he doesn’t solve the need for length on the perimeter — a need Collins and others on the coaching staff and in the front office have pointed out.
With this pick, the Warriors are seeking a player who can contribute right away and eventually blossom into the next face of the franchise. With the way the league is trending, those players are increasingly ball-handlers and shot-makers.
