California’s population growth has chilled to its slowest advance in 80 years, as births and foreign immigration cooled and outflows to other states and deaths heated up.
In its population update as of July 1, the state Department of Finance reported 39.96 million Californians — up 141,000 in a year and the smallest increase since 1939. Last year’s population growth was down 86,000 from 227,000 in 2018 and below the 283,000 averaged a year in the decade.
Or look at the long-running slowdown this way: State population grew by 2.88 million in the 2010s vs. 3.66 million in the previous decade and 4.28 million in the 1990s.
Some folks may cheer these numbers because less population growth may ease various levels of congestion and can lower stresses on the state’s infrastructure. But lower growth creates challenges, too: For example, it makes it tough on employers, who may find it harder (or costlier) to hire. It also means it’s harder to find new customers to serve. And for state and local governments, it’s fewer taxpayers.
The population cooldown looks even icier on a percentage basis: California added residents by a thin 0.35% annual rate over that past 12 months. That’s the lowest growth rate in state records that date to 1900.
It’s also a population expansion well below the 0.75% average growth rate for the decade — and that pace was down from 1%-a-year increases in the 2000s and 1.4% in the 1990s.
Why is population growth cooling?
A high cost of living has made moves from elsewhere in the U.S. financially unappealing for many Americans. The nation also has become less hospitable to foreigners, trimming immigration’s potential. And broad demographic trends are a drag on population globally.
Ponder key slices of population change …
Births: Falling as the state (and nation) ages and child-rearing become less popular. In the past year, 452,217 new Californians were born — down from 461,417 in 2018 and down from 491,000 averaged in the decade.
Deaths: Again, we’re all getting older. Deaths rose to 271,431 in the past year from 270,638 in 2018 and a 252,000 average for the decade.
Domestic outmigration: Rising to 197,594 more moves to other states vs. arrivals from a 132,176 net loss in 2018 and up from 111,000 averaged in the decade. This marks the biggest net outflow since 2009.
Foreign immigration: Relatively stagnant at 158,118. Yes that’s down from 168,569 in 2018 and but it’s slight above the 155,000 averaged in the decade. The data does not track whether this immigration was legal or not.
