One COVID-19 statistical model followed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has added a list of U.S. counties to their projections. COVID-Projections is now estimating the number of infections and deaths in Santa Clara County and 13 other U.S. counties.
The model, created by independent data scientist Youyang Gu, projects that there will be 196 deaths due to COVID-19 in Santa Clara County by Sept. 1. On May 25, there were 139 deaths, according to the County of Santa Clara Public Health Department.
COVID-Projections uses artificial intelligence and an epidemiological methodology called SEIS (susceptible, exposed, infectious, susceptible again) to make its predictions. The model also factors in a gradual reopening in the county beginning June 1.
COVID-Projections claims to be the most accurate model monitored by the CDC. For example, it predicted 88,767 U.S. deaths on May 16. On that date, the U.S. reported 88,751 deaths.
In Santa Clara County, the model projected 140 deaths on May 25. The actual number was 139 deaths.
COVID-Projections also publishes a range of the number of infections expected over time.
Experts say models are useful tools for health care officials to consider when preparing during the pandemic.
