1. TAMPA BAY
The Bucs kept everybody who mattered from a team that dominated in the postseason. Tom Brady belongs at the top until someone knocks him off. He even got a new toy in running back Giovani Bernard via free agency. The defense remains fast and can get after the quarterback, with Shaquil Barrett one of the NFL’s top threats from the edge.
2. KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs had a bad day in the Super Bowl, but remain the class of the AFC with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and wideout Tyreek Hill piling up yardage and touchdowns at an obscene rate. Kansas City merely needs to be adequate on defense, and with defensive tackle Chris Jones and safety Tyrann Mathieu around, that seems assured.
3. L.A. RAMS
Sean McVay and Co. boldly went all-in on Matt Stafford in the blockbuster deal that sent Jared Goff to Detroit. If this goes well, you may find other teams copying the Rams’ unusual mode of team building in terms of adding star players at the expense of first-round draft picks and concentrating on developing mid-round talent into functional role players.
4. BUFFALO
With just under 5,000 yards passing and rushing, 37 touchdown passes, and eight rushing touchdowns, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen had one of the best seasons that didn’t result in an MVP award. Pass rush could be one thing holding Buffalo back as ends Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison will be 33 and 34 when the season begins.
5. BALTIMORE
Will the Ravens pass the test when it matters most? Lamar Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback unlike any other and remains the primary mover of the NFL’s top rushing attack. But the Ravens still aren’t a team that makes up deficits quickly or easily, which may limit them to another playoff berth and then disappointment.
6. TENNESSEE
Who is going to design and call plays for an offense featuring running back Derrick Henry, quarterback Ryan Tannehill and a receiving duo of Julio Jones and A.J. Brown? None other than Todd Downing, who oversaw the collapse of the Raiders offense in 2017 after a playoff year. Bud Dupree and Denico Autry arrive for a defense that will pressure quarterbacks more in 2021.
7. 49ERS
All eyes will be on how soon Kyle Shanahan begins to deploy No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance at the expense of incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo, although Garoppolo’s history of injury could take care of that for him. It’s a potential 10- plus win team regardless, especially if edge rusher Nick Bosa is all the way back from last year’s ACL tear in Week 2.
8. SEATTLE
Not sure what that whole Russell Wilson trade charade was all about. He was never going anywhere, but let’s face it — Wilson’s play fell off after a strong start when he had 10 turnovers in a four-game stretch with three losses. Incredible hulk wide receiver D.K. Metcalf could emerge as a Calvin Johnson-caliber receiver in Year 3. A porous secondary remains a problem.
9. CLEVELAND
Was 2020 a mirage or are the Browns a viable contender for not only the AFC North but the conference title? Quarterback Baker Mayfield is an excellent anticipatory thrower and operates one of the NFL’s most balanced attacks. Defensively, pressure on the quarterback from players other than Myles Garrett is a problem, and Garrett has faded in each of the last two seasons.
10. INDIANAPOLIS
GM Chris Ballard and coach Frank Reich have proved to be capable team builders, and both have essentially staked their reputations on the revival of Carson Wentz after a crash-and-burn in Philadelphia. They’ll rely on balance with Jonathan Taylor running the ball as Wentz regains his confidence. DeForest Buckner at three-technique and Darius Leonard at linebacker are top-shelf players on the first level of defense.
11. PITTSBURGH
It’s pretty much the last roundup for Ben Roethlisberger, who accepted a $5 million pay cut to come back and prove he can do more than dink and dunk at the age of 39. Help is on the way in terms of balance with first-round pick Najee Harris at running back, and the Steelers defense with T.J. Watt continues to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
12. GREEN BAY
The manner in which GM Brian Gutekunst has mismanaged everything that has to do with quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads me to believe the Packers are pointing downward regardless of whether it’s Rodgers or Jordan Love leading the way. Dumping D-coordinator Mike Pettine in favor of Joe Barry doesn’t inspire confidence.
13. ARIZONA
This is the season we discover if Kyler Murray is an entertaining gimmick or a quarterback who can lead a team to championship level of play. He’ll need to find DeAndre Hopkins (6 TD receptions last season) in the end zone more often. Defensively, the Cardinals can do some damage if edge rusher Chandler Jones recovers from biceps surgery and if former Texan J.J. Watt has one last big year.
14. RAIDERS
The Raiders are taking painstakingly small steps up the ladder under coach Jon Gruden, going from four wins to seven and then eight. The question is whether their offensive line reshuffle will affect quarterback Derek Carr’s efficiency. The defense got the major overhaul it needed after a pathetic 2020 season. Expect another minor improvement — to, say, 9-8.
15. MIAMI
Eighteen starters return from a 10-6 team that had more wins than its talent base suggests. Miami is nothing special at any offensive position and it remains to be seen if Tua Tagovailoa will ever look like the No. 5 pick in the draft. Miami’s ability to defend the pass and create turnovers must be duplicated or the fall could be precipitous.
16. NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots underwent a major facelift in free agency — something that almost never works when attempting to turn a subpar team into a good one. It will be interesting to see how long Bill Belichick sticks with Cam Newton before inserting first-round pick Mac Jones at quarterback in an attempt at cloning Tom Brady in a decision-making sense.
17. MINNESOTA
Kirk Cousins has been so-so, and the Vikings need much more than that considering the $76 million their quarterback costs under the salary cap over the next two seasons. The Vikings were uncharacteristically poor defensively in 2020, but fear not — deposed Raiders coordinator Paul Guenther is on staff as a senior defensive assistant.
18. DALLAS
Mike McCarthy’s first year as head coach was a disaster, but not everything rests at the feet of Dak Prescott’s season-ending ankle injury. The Cowboys will score plenty, but they’ll give up just as many points. Not enough was done to upgrade a defense that allowed 29.6 points per game.
19. L.A. CHARGERS
Is quarterback Justin Herbert really as good as he looked in 2020? He flourished as a rookie, but it’s seldom a good thing to switch coaches and coordinators in the second year of a developing quarterback. Herbert will also be operating behind an offensive line that is returning just one starter.
20. NEW ORLEANS
Sean Payton has shown the ability to get the Saints through brief in-season absences of the now-retired Drew Brees. Depending on Jameis Winston with a dash of Taysom Hill, however, is a whole new ballgame. Coordinator Dennis Allen’s defense was among the NFL’s best, and will have to be even better to contend in 2021.
21. WASHINGTON
The defending NFC East champs are coming off a 7-9 season, mostly on the strength of a defense that ranked second in yards and fourth in points allowed under the direction of Jack Del Rio. But the offense remains suspect and a brutal schedule requires them to play each of last year’s semifinalists — two on the road.
22. CAROLINA
If Sam Darnold’s biggest problem turns out to be he was tied to the New York Jets, and Stanford alum Christian McCaffrey has a bounce-back year with 2,000 yards in rushing and receiving, the Panthers could be 10 spots better than this. The Carolina defense is deficient in terms of rushing the passer and making plays in the secondary.
23. ATLANTA
It’s been a slow decline for Matt Ryan since he was the NFL’s Most Valuable Player in 2016, and a lot of that has to do with the QB’s supporting cast. The Falcons have moved on from Julio Jones, with Calvin Ridley and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts expected to pick up the slack. There’s a new head coach in Arthur Smith.
24. CHICAGO
A Khalil Mack-led defense is only so-so at rushing the passer, with a combined 67 sacks over the past two years, and struggles to close out games. Coach Matt Nagy’s job will rest on his ability to get rookie Justin Fields up and running as an upper-tier quarterback as soon as possible.
25. DENVER
If the Broncos are depending on some combination of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, they’ll be hard-pressed to compete in a division that includes Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr. They’ll be solid on defense, but to even think about a title run, Von Miller needs to return from a foot injury and be a Hall of Fame-caliber player again.
26. PHILADELPHIA
The pressure is on Jalen Hurts to deliver the goods at quarterback, otherwise, it’s Joe Flacco to the rescue. It’s been a steady descent for Flacco since he delivered a championship for Baltimore against the 49ers nine years ago.
27. N.Y. JETS
New coach Robert Saleh should inject life and enthusiasm into a two-game winner, but has a rookie quarterback in Zach Wilson and a dubious supporting cast on offense and defense. It’s hard to imagine the Jets doing much better than doubling their paltry 2020 season win total.
28. N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants were actually ninth in the NFL in scoring defense at 22.3 points per game. Surprised? Unfortunately, unless Saquon Barkley can put up Tiki Barber-in his-prime numbers, it won’t be enough to compensate for a popgun offense and a quarterback, Daniel Jones, who has yet to prove he’s the future of the franchise.
29. CINCINNATI
Joe Burrow looked the part of a franchise quarterback until a knee injury ended the rookie season of the NFL’s No. 1 overall pick early. The Bengals got him a new weapon in rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase, but at the expense of not selecting a top-shelf blocker in Round 1. There remains a dearth of talent on offense and defense, which ensures another sub-.500 season.
30. DETROIT
New coach Dan Campbell’s cartoonish opening news conference notwithstanding, the Lions are about as soft as it gets. They haven’t run the ball well since Barry Sanders retired and their defense gave up a staggering 519 points last season — the second-highest total in NFL history.
31. JACKSONVILLE
If quarterback Trevor Lawrence and coach Urban Meyer can get this one-win disaster anything more than six wins, then maybe the Jaguars are indeed off and running into something other than a dismal future. Many of the same suspects from the NFL’s 31st-ranked defense return.
32. HOUSTON
David Culley may be a great coach, but it’s unlikely he has the horses to prove it. Former coach Bill O’Brien has left the cupboard bare, quarterback DeShaun Watson’s career is in limbo and even franchise cornerstone J.J. Watt fled to Arizona to escape what looks to be a hopeless situation.
