Weeks ago, the season became a grind.
The night games are piling up.
The stadiums are getting colder.
And the frustration is mounting.
Earlier this month, two Pac-12 athletic directors — the ADs whose teams are in the playoff race — spoke candidly about night kickoffs and the impact the conference’s media contract is having on attendance and fan engagement.
“There is no question that it has caused a lot of damage,’’ Utah’s Mark Harlan told John Canzano of the Oregonian and the Bald-Faced Truth radio show.
“We have to follow this contract, and it’s tough.”
As explained in a Hotline deep dive into the issue of night games and TV selections, the Pac-12 contracts with Fox and ESPN grant the networks approximately 24 slots for night games each season.
The number varies per school per year.
Good teams — or teams facing quality opponents — are often assigned 7 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. (or 8 p.m.) start times because ESPN and Fox officials want quality content in those late windows.
This year, Oregon qualifies as quality content:
The Ducks are a top-10 team in the playoff race with a marquee quarterback (Justin Herbert) and impact games each week.
When their Nov. 16 home game against Arizona was slotted into the 7:30 p.m. window by ESPN, athletic director Rob Mullens went public with his frustration.
Four of Oregon’s six home games have been at 7 p.m. or later.
“Obviously, we are disappointed,’’ Mullens told the Register-Guard.
“We have a very passionate fan base that has been supportive of our team this year and we’d love to have an afternoon game. We are six games in and they are all at 4 o’clock or later with five of them at night.”
Teams can play as many as six or seven night games per season, or as few as three or four.
The following tally includes the known kickoff times for Nov. 30, with several games yet to be scheduled, and accounts for games controlled by the Pac-12.
(Night games: 7 p.m. or later, local time.)
Arizona: 7
Arizona State: 5
Cal: 5
Colorado: 5
Washington: 5
Oregon: 4
Washington State: 4
UCLA: 3
USC: 3
Utah: 3
Oregon State: 2
Stanford: 2
Mullens went on to tell the Register-Guard:
“We are in the middle of a contract and there are some benefits to that contract, but one of the unfortunate, unintended consequences was late TV windows.
“We have all taken note of what the experience has been like and how hard it is on our fans.”
The contract with Fox and ESPN runs through the 2023 season.
At that point, when the next media deal is up for bid, the Pac-12 likely will be forced to make the same calculation it did during the 2011 negotiations, which landed the groundbreaking $3 billion contract:
The more night games available for the networks and the flexibility with the schedule (i.e., six- and 12-day selection windows), the bigger the paycheck.
“We have to remember all this when the new deal comes up,’’ Harlan told Canzano. “We have to decide what we’re going to be.”
Here’s a suggestion from the Hotline (free of charge):
The conference likes consultants. In the past 18 months it has hired consultants for football officiating and consultants for communications strategy and consultants for an equity sale of its media rights.
Sometime in the next two years, hire a consultant to determine the real value of a night broadcast on ESPN or FS1.
Collect the ratings and audience figures for night games, then assign a value to the exposure and compare it to an afternoon game.
Then …
With help from the schools, determine the average revenue from night kickoffs based on ticket sales, concessions, parking and merchandise.
And be sure to add a metric for indirect revenue: The fan engagement factor, which would account for enthusiasm — for the likelihood that attendees would deepen their relationship (financial and otherwise) with the school over a lifetime.
Do the same for day games, then compare the total benefit (i.e., value) of day games to that of night games.
That would provide clarity on what is gained or lost based on kickoff times.
Cross-match that with the value of TV exposures for night games.
When the time comes to negotiate a new contract, make sure the networks are paying enough for night games to offset the lost game-day revenue — both direct and indirect, both actual and unrealized.
The campus experience and in-stadium atmosphere on game day form the lifeblood of any football program.
If the TV viewing value-add from night games doesn’t offset the campus value-lost from night games, perhaps the conference should adjust its strategy at the negotiating table.
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