Delivering transportation megaprojects is notoriously challenging: They’re near certain to take longer and cost more than anticipated. SPUR found, in researching our upcoming report “More for Less,” that Bay Area transit projects regularly take decades from start to finish, and our project costs consistently rank among the highest in the world.
Currently, Phase II of the Silicon Valley BART extension is estimated to cost $6.5 billion for a 45-foot-diameter single-bore tunnel with two levels of tracks in the station. That’s almost four times as much per mile as the Barcelona L9/L10 metro, despite the fact that it uses the same tunneling technology and the L9/L10 extension is arguably a more challenging project. It’s the longest and deepest new metro extension in Europe, at 30 miles and 52 stations (by comparison, BART Silicon Valley Phase II is six miles and four stations), and it traverses under highly developed neighborhoods and a number of historic landmarks.
In our research, we found that major transit projects are regularly 10% to 30% more expensive than estimated, after factoring in annual construction cost escalations. Already, we are seeing major cost increases as the project moves from its most conceptual stages into design and engineering, increasing from $4.7 billion in 2018 to $6.5 billion earlier this summer.
Now is exactly the right time for forward-leaning agencies such as VTA and BART to get out ahead of potential problems on BART Silicon Valley Phase II. Because such megaprojects cross many political cycles and agencies, they are laden with issues of control over financing, design and project development and need consistent communication, transparency and accountability.
Here are three actions we think should be taken now to make sure Phase II doesn’t go off track:
1. Conduct a comprehensive, independent peer review for the project at key milestones. Peer reviews should take a close look at the project’s high construction costs including tunneling methods and ask and answer a series of questions: How do the project costs and benefits stack up against other similar projects? What if the project were constructed with less costly methods? Could the project be delivered in minimum operable segments if there is a funding shortfall?
2. Engage and support impacted communities. Transportation projects have often failed to incorporate community goals and needs, leaving scars through neighborhoods and perpetuating racial and economic inequities. The City of San Jose is right to try to minimize construction impacts. These wounds are especially deep in the Alum Rock neighborhood, where the impacts of bus rapid transit construction are fresh, and downtown, where the impacts of building light rail decades ago are still felt today.
3. Establish an integrated project management team and governance structure for the project. This is especially needed for BART Silicon Valley Phase II for two reasons: First, the project is being built by one agency but operated by another; second, the project will need to be integrated into Diridon Station, a major hub whose design is critical to the functioning of the entire regional transit network. Phase I was delayed in part due to the number of issues that needed to be reconciled before BART could begin service. Unfortunately, differences tend to be “solved” by increasing the scope and size of the infrastructure and sacrificing user experience.
Silicon Valley prides itself on being first. Let’s strive to be the first in the Bay Area to deliver a megaproject quickly, cost effectively and with good public value.
Laura Tolkoff is SPUR’s regional planning policy director; Michael Lane is SPUR’s San José director.
