A correction to an earlier version of this article has been appended to the end of the article.
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An updated University of California seismic assessment has found dozens of buildings at the venerable Berkeley campus along the worrisome Hayward Fault would be damaged in a large earthquake, with six posing possible risk of human injury or death from full or partial structural collapse.
“I understand that this message is likely to generate concern and questions,” Chancellor Carol T. Christ said in a statement Wednesday. “We cannot alter the fact that a majority of the buildings across the UC system were built before 1976 and are, therefore, at the very least, potential candidates for seismic upgrades. What we can do is to spare no effort to make our campus as safe as possible, and as quickly as possible, and we are doing exactly that.”
The upgraded assessment stems from seismic policy revisions the UC Regents adopted in 2017. The policy established new guidelines for assessing buildings with the help of independent experts based on scientific advancements in understanding earthquakes and updated building codes. Under the new policy, every building with significant seismic performance deficiencies must be retrofitted, replaced or vacated by 2030.
The seismic safety policy includes a revised, seven-level scale for rating buildings’ predicted performance in a significant earthquake, with levels 1-3 representing the least anticipated amount of damage to buildings and negligible or slight risk to people. The risk of damage and injury increases at higher levels.
Six UC Berkeley buildings — Moffitt Undergraduate Library, Durant Hall, Evans Hall, Stephens Hall, Wellman Hall and Donner Lab Addition — were rated at level 6, described as “very poor.”
Such a rating means an earthquake could cause extensive structural and nonstructural damage, collapse or create falling hazards that could injure or kill people, with a possible 100 percent structural damage and a risk to life described as “severe.”
Another 62 buildings were rated as level 5, considered “poor,” with seismic building damage from 20 to 50 percent and a “serious” risk to life.
No campus buildings earned a level 7, which carries the most risk: 100 percent expected damage to structures and “dangerous” risk to life. Under the new guidelines, a building with that classification would be immediately red-tagged and vacated.
The university stressed that a rating can reflect structural deficiency in just part of the structure and that a very poor rating does not necessarily indicate that an entire building is compromised. They have not told students to avoid them.
“The buildings have not become more dangerous,” said Dan Mogulof, UC Berkeley’s assistant vice chancellor of executive communications. “What’s happened is there have been advancements in science and scientific understanding so that what was considered acceptable a few weeks ago is no longer acceptable. UC Berkeley understands it has to respond to science.”
Students milling about the six buildings rated very poor didn’t appear overly concerned. Outside the Moffitt library, fourth-year student Daniel Getter said he wasn’t surprised it might need retrofitting but added there are probably buildings that are worse off than the ones on campus.
“I’m not sure I’m worried unless I’m in a big lecture hall with 1,000 other students,” Getter said.
Kyle Yu, a freshman who was waiting for a friend outside Evans Hall, had not heard of the new building assessment, but said: “I always assume it’s safe.”
Jameson Karns, who is pursuing a doctorate in history, said as he left Stephens Hall on Thursday that he worries more about campus search and rescue efforts than the integrity of the campus’ buildings if an earthquake hits.
“It’s not a matter of if, but a matter of when,” Karns said.
Chancellor Christ said that before remediation can proceed, experts must first determine whether the best option is to retrofit, replace or vacate the buildings. Then the campus will work with the UC President’s office to figure out how to pay for the expansive, expensive undertaking.
In the meantime, Christ said, Berkeley will begin to review “available, realistic options to limit occupancy and usage of seismically deficient buildings on our campus.”
Seismic safety is a particular issue for the UC system’s flagship Berkeley campus, the oldest of its 10 campuses established in 1868 during the Reconstruction era after the Civil War. More than 42,000 students attend Berkeley, including more than 30,000 undergraduates. By contrast, the newest campus, UC Merced, opened in 2005 and has about 8,500 students.
The Hayward Fault, which runs along the base of the East Bay hills and through the Berkeley campus, has long been considered high risk for a major earthquake in the Bay Area. Part of the larger San Andreas Fault system, it produced a magnitude 6.8 earthquake on October 21, 1868, that destroyed downtown Hayward, killed 5 people and was considered the region’s big earthquake until a larger one on the San Andreas estimated at magnitude 7.9 struck San Francisco in 1906.
According to the UC Berkeley Seismology Lab, it is “very likely that the Hayward Fault will rupture and produce a significant earthquake within the next 30 years.”
The UC system began assessing the seismic risk of its campus buildings in 1975, and Christ noted there have been no deaths or injuries from 37 major California earthquakes of magnitude 5.1 or higher since.
Following the deadly 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake originating in the Santa Cruz Mountains, UC Berkeley retrofitted 18 buildings in the 1990s at a cost of about $250 million, and in 1997 embarked on a more comprehensive seismic enhancement program. UC Berkeley has to date spent more than $1 billion addressing seismic deficiencies, Christ said.
Of the six UC Berkeley buildings with the poorest ratings, the oldest is Durant Hall, built in 1911 when William Taft was the country’s president, movies were silent and musical records were cylinders. The latest seismic assessment said that “a stone façade that does not appear to have any ties back to the structure” and along with unreinforced concrete “presents an appreciable falling debris hazard during a seismic event.”
Wellman Hall opened in 1912 and Stephens Hall in 1923. The latest assessment said Wellman’s “massive exterior concrete walls do not appear to be anchored to either the granite cladding or the structural steel frame and interior slabs,” posing “significant risk from falling hazards.” At Stephens, “unanchored reinforced concrete wall infills,” “heavy chimneys” and “heavy ornamental ceilings” pose falling hazards.
The Donner Lab Addition was built in 1953, Moffitt Undergraduate Library in 1970, and Evans Hall in 1971. Of the six, only the Moffitt library has been retrofitted before, in 1992.
The dozens of buildings given a poor rating include Sproul Hall built in 1941, the Cesar E. Chavez Student Center built in 1960, the Foothill Housing buildings on Hearst Avenue built in 1990, Gilman Hall built in 1917, International House on Piedmont Avenue built in 1930 and the Recreational Sports Facility built in 1984.
Correction: Aug. 30, 2019
An earlier version of this article misidentified UC Berkeley graduate student Jameson Karns.
