*** The Pac-12 Hotline newsletter is published each Monday-Wednesday-Friday during the college sports season and twice-a-week in the summer. (Sign up here for a free subscription.) This edition, from Aug. 25, has been made available in archived form.
Wrong Call On Football?
Two weeks ago today, the Pac-12 shuttered football for the first time in conference history.
Not much has changed over the fortnight:
The SEC, ACC and Big 12 continue churning forward despite positive tests, practice pauses and campus policy reversals.
At the same time, so much has changed:
The Covid-19 positivity rate is dropping in Arizona; the case counts are plunging in Washington; and the outbreak is receding in California.
Local conditions no longer seem quite so daunting across the Pac-12 footprint.
So we wonder: Did the presidents move too soon?
Absolutely not, and quite possibly yes.
Sorry for the waffling. But with college football as with so many coronavirus matters, the answer is steeped in complexity and nuance.
Earlier this summer, the Hotline outlined the smooth manner in which the Pac-12 conducted business during the pandemic.
Earlier this month, we summarized the reasoning behind the decision to shut down the fall sports season.
And for these past two weeks, we have pondered the timing of the plug pulling.
Our conclusion:
The decision made perfect sense based on all available information at the time of the vote, which came one week before the start of training camp.
In fact, the vote was taken at that time, Aug. 11, precisely because of training camp: The conference needed the medical experts to approve testing and tracing protocols for the start of contact practice.
Instead, they delivered a 12-page report explaining why that was ill-advised.
Our measured critique of the process targets the broader framework:
The decision that led to the regular-season calendar, which set the training camp schedule that required the medical report that convinced the presidents to shut it down when they did.
Why attempt a 10-game season, starting in late September?
That decision seemed aggressive at the time (July 31) based on the Covid-19 conditions across the west and the testing limitations across the country.
As the days passed and training camp drew closer, aggressive became unreasonable.
Had the conference instead crafted a more modest schedule — for example: eight or nine games, starting in the middle of October — then everything would have changed.
It could have started training camp in the middle of September, not the middle of August, which would have given the medical advisors three or four additional weeks to monitor.
Their skepticism that local conditions and testing limitations would remain unchanged into September played a key role in the recommendation and the vote.
But what if they had waited until after Labor Day to take stock of local conditions and testing technology?
What if they had taken another month to gather information on Myocarditis?
Instead of starting at Mile 1 and seeing no realistic path to the marathon’s finish, what if they had started at Mile 13?
Might the end-game have looked different?
Probably not.
But probably isn’t the bar — at least, it shouldn’t be the bar.
For its athletes and fans, the conference should have done everything possible to buy as much time as possible.
It should have avoided a vote until it absolutely, positively had to take a vote.
Based on the regular-season and training camp schedules that were announced at the end of July, the vote was, in fact, wholly necessary at the time it took place.
But did the conference box itself in with the calendar?
Would the outlook be any different now, today, at this moment, if the teams were still three weeks from starting training camp?
We can’t rule that out.
If you’re going to second guess the decision, that’s not an unfair place to start. — Jon Wilner.
Hot off the Hotline
• The Associated Press released its preseason poll on Monday. All major college teams were deemed eligible in order to give fans a sense for the FBS landscape. (Once the season begins … if the season begins … only teams competing will be included in the weekly poll.) The Hotline is voting again this year. My preseason ballot and All-American selections were published Monday.
• ICYMI: The Friday newsletter acknowledged the Hotline’s third anniversary and made a simple request of our loyal readers: Spread the word.
• Previous editions of the newsletter are available in archived form.
Support the Hotline: Several Hotline articles will remain free each month (as will the newsletter), but for access to all content, you’ll need to subscribe. I’ve secured a rate of $1 per week for a full year or just 99 cents for the first month, with the option to cancel anytime. Click here. And thanks for your loyalty.
Mark Your Calendars
• The College Football Playoff on Monday announced key dates for the 2020 season, including the timing of committee rankings, the semifinal selections and the games themselves. But what happens if the Pac-12 and Big Ten play in the spring? Could there be two playoffs? That seems unlikely, writes CBS Sports columnist Dennis Dodd.
• The NCAA is exploring four options for the start of the college basketball season, reports CBS’ Matt Norlander. All four scenarios slot the regular-season openers for November and December — well before the Pac-12 teams are permitted to take the court (Jan. 1, at the earliest). Writes Norlander: “Another source said they would be surprised if college basketball’s season ultimately doesn’t start a couple of days before or after Thanksgiving. The reason being: campuses would be mostly empty, allowing for games to be held there without crowds and much less risk of coronavirus transmission.”
In the News
(Note: The Hotline newsletter includes links to sites that could require a subscription once the number of free views has been reached.)
• Negative recruiting tied to the Pac-12’s decision to shut down football is already underway, 247sports analyst Brandon Huffman tells the Seattle Times. “They’re going to have to deal with the already permeating feeling that football is just not as serious out west. I think the good schools in the Pac-12 are able to offset that.”
• Cal defensive lineman Luc Bequette, one of the top interior players in the conference, is headed to Boston College in order to play this fall. Makes sense: It’s his sixth and final year.
• Washington State receiver Tay Martin is transferring to Oklahoma State, which deploys his style of offense. Meanwhile, defensive back Skyler Thomas is returning to WSU after a brief trip into the transfer portal.
• Free time has given UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson a chance to find … himself. “I’m Dorian Thompson-Robinson and that’s who I’m going to be and that’s who I’m going to promote and that’s who I’m going to embrace,” he tells the L.A. Times’ Ben Bolch.
• An assessment of Arizona’s defense, level by level (and hole by hole), from tucson.com’s Michael Lev.
• Arizona State’s latest class of 2021 commitment comes from the No. 1 player in the country at his position: center Ezra Dotson-Oyetade.
• Oregon quarterback recruit Ty Thompson has received a five-star rating from Rivals. That’s a first for the Ducks.
• “It will be a lonely fall for football fans. But the Pac-12 made the right call,” writes Buffzone’s Pat Rooney.
• Keeping the athletes healthy just got more difficult for Utah, where the students are back on campus.
• What could have been, in September.
• Not related to football or athletics but to university life: USC, which is fully remote and just started the semester, found 43 positive cases with students living off campus.
Money Matters
• A deep dive into Arizona’s finances by tucson.com’s Bruce Pascoe is revealing on two fronts: The impact a football-less fall could have on the athletic department; and the moving target that is financial reporting. It’s difficult to pin down an exact value for football within the media rights revenue stream. “We begin to estimate revenues and build revenues centered around football, and then report that way, so I don’t know what all the smaller buckets that add up to that larger bucket,” Wildcats athletic director Dave Heeke said. “But I don’t use that as a hard number, that is, that if football goes away, all of it goes away.”
Looking Ahead
What’s coming on the Pac-12 Hotline:
• The NFL on Saturdays? Yeah, maybe.
• An altered Pac-12 media strategy? Perhaps.
• A local candidate for a powerful industry position? Quite possibly.
The next newsletter is scheduled for Friday. Enjoy it? Please forward this email to friends (sign up here). If you don’t, or have other feedback, let me know: pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
