Another year, another season in which the Sharks fail to win the Stanley Cup.
That’s how you might expect a Sharks season preview to start. Although we won’t take the time to catalog the various season previews published over the past decade, it is safe to assume that most summaries of the Sharks focused on playoff disappointment, followed by an opining of what could have been, accentuated by pondering whether the Sharks could ever get over the hump.
That is not how this preview is going to go.
Why?
Well, first of all, you can’t come within two victories of reaching the Stanley Cup Final and call it a bad year. The Sharks were the third-best team in the playoffs, and only five teams had a better regular season record.
Plus there was the Game 7 against Vegas!
The team also locked up another future Hall of Famer in Erik Karlsson. Tomas Hertl became a dominant force, Joe Thornton was arguably the best third-line center in the league and Brent Burns was nominated for a Norris Trophy.
So enough of this playoff disappointment stuff. Fans had the right to complain about playoff flops when the team lost against the Ducks in the first round after winning the President’s Trophy in 2009. The playoff disappointment trope is just lazy and not true after last season.
Rant over.
The Sharks enter the 2019–2020 season with a team similar to the one that played in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals last spring. Although some core pieces have departed, most of the core remains.
We will analyze the various aspects of the team, speculating as to whether or not GM Doug Wilson did enough to address issues in each area.
Today’s focus: Goalies
Martin Jones had a perplexing year. He has had a perplexing tenure as a Sharks goalie. His second year with the team saw him backstop the Sharks to their first ever Stanley Cup Final appearance. Would the Sharks have won, he and Logan Couture would have been the Sharks top vote-getters for the Conn Smythe.
Fast-forward to the 2019 Vegas series, and it seemed as if something was wrong with Jones. Sharks fans knew he was a good goalie, but for some reason, he was not NHL- quality until Game 6 when he made 59 saves to save the season.
Jones’ regular-season stats were not good last season. His .896 GAA is nowhere near the level of a starting NHL goaltender, let alone one of his $5.75 million-a-year cap hit.
There is an advanced stat called Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) that shows how a goalie compares to a league-average goalie. Jones had the second-worst GSAA in the league last year, surrendering nearly 23 more goals than the average goalie (in his 62 starts). To put that into easily understandable terms, Martin Jones let in one extra goal every third game he played.
That is not good.
What is good? He is going to be better. Over the course of his career, Jones has been an above-average goaltender in GSAA. His stats from last year are an aberration, not a regression in his ability. Add to that a defensive group that is bound to improve with a healthy Karlsson, and Sharks fans should expect the return of the steady Martin Jones they saw in previous seasons.
Aaron Dell, the Sharks’ third-year, 30-year-old backup did not have an impressive 2018–2019 season either. Dell’s stats were similarly poor, finishing with a dismal .886 Save Percentage. Being a backup goalie does not demand dominance, and backups often get the tough assignments either relieving an already losing team, or starting on the back end of back-to-back nights. However, if the Sharks do not see at least average-level goaltending from Dell, do not be surprised if Wilson makes a Reimer-type trade to pick up an experienced quality backup.
Baby Sharks: Backup support could come from within the organization as well. The Barracuda’s Antoine Bibeau made the AHL All-Star team last year, and is likely the Sharks’ third-string goalie should injury befall Jones or Dell. Josef Korenar was impressive for the ‘Cuda last year as well and is the best prospect in the Sharks’ goalie pipeline. Barring disaster, however, do not expect to see Korenar playing for the Sharks beyond the preseason.
Summary: The Sharks had the league’s worst save percentage, while being in the middle of the pack in total goals allowed. This means that the goaltending was not good. But this is a new season, so let’s stop beating a dead horse.
Also, the Sharks were a great team in spite of the subpar goaltending. Statistics often suggest regressions towards a mean. If Jones and Dell can both inch back towards their career average performance, the Sharks will continue to succeed. Should the team’s defense improve as well, the Sharks will surely be a powerhouse in the league.
