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Arizona State coach Herm Edwards just set the bar for his peers across the conference.
One day after the Sun Devils beat Arizona for their seventh victory, Edwards gutted his offensive staff, jettisoning playcaller Rob Likens and two other assistants.
Chris Petersen and David Shaw, what say you?
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Will two of the most accomplished coaches in the conference follow Edwards in ruthless pursuit of improvement, or favor the status quo of mediocrity?
The easy move, of course, is no move.
The easy move for Petersen would be to ride the Apple Cup momentum into an offseason of justifications:
Those no-show losses to Stanford and Colorado … those not-quite-good-enough performances against Oregon and Utah … the inability to solve Cal’s scheme — just chalk everything up to the nearest available excuse and start grinding for 2020.
That would be the easy path.
The hard path, the necessary path, would be to make substantial changes to the offense — to the staff and the playbook and the player development.
Because it’s clear the Huskies, as currently composed, aren’t good enough on offense to be the team they want to be.
Too many players on too many units — particularly the receivers and offensive line — haven’t improved substantially over the past two or three seasons.
Why didn’t the offensive line dominate more often?
Why the dropped passes?
Why the good-but-not-elite running game?
And those stink bombs at Stanford and Colorado? That looked like an overloaded offense, like a unit suffering from paralysis by analysis — a unit unable to execute with the required speed and physicality.
It all shows up in the numbers …
Third-down conversion percentage: Terrible (110th in the FBS).
Red-zone touchdown percentage: Subpar (77th).
Points per game: Mediocre (48th).
Petersen likes to say stats are for losers. Not those stats. Those stats — plus turnover margin — are everything.
Add ‘ em up, and they equal 7-5.
The problems aren’t all on offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan, who has seemed overwhelmed in his two years running Chris Petersen’s offense. The position coaches are culpable. The head coach is culpable. The players are culpable.
But Petersen isn’t leaving, and they can’t overhaul the roster.
Changes are needed to reclaim lost ground, not only atop the division but on the national stage.
Speaking of lost ground …
The easy move for Shaw would be to ride the injuries into an offseason of justifications.
The blowout losses, the awful red zone offense, the 19.8 points per game in November, the program’s worst season in more than a decade — just attribute everything to the battered offensive line and hunker down for spring ball.
That would be the easy path.
The hard path, the necessary path, would be to make substantive changes to the scheme and the staff and the player development.
To recognize that the offense isn’t fresh and the blueprint for the running game must be tweaked.
Stanford’s rushing yards per game:
2016: 208.9
2017: 202.4
2018: 107.9
2019: 105.5
A crash of that degree cannot be traced to one thing.
A loss of identity of that magnitude is rooted in issues with personnel (worse) and injuries (mounting) and playcalling (predictable) and turnover (staff).
What changed after 2017? Longtime offensive line coach/offensive coordinator Mike Bloomgren left for the top job at Rice.
In response, Shaw hired Kevin Carberry to coach the line and promoted Tavita Pritchard to run the offense — to run Shaw’s offense. Both were career first-timers in those roles.
The deficiencies with the running game the past two seasons aren’t all on Carberry and Pritchard.
The former was trotting out one rookie after another this fall as his veterans went down with injuries and isn’t responsible for the dearth of a playmaker in the backfield.
And unlike Petersen, Shaw is the last word on every play called from the sideline. Success and failure begin with him.
But as is the case in Seattle, the evidence doesn’t favor the status quo.
It suggests a rigorous self-scout is necessary — a hard examination of not only the offensive staff and scheme but also Stanford’s strength-and-conditioning program, its training staff and its recruiting process.
What we saw this season from the Cardinal (4-8/3-6) was an all-systems failure:
Not talented enough, not healthy enough, not efficient enough, not creative enough … not good enough anywhere.
The instinct for Shaw and Petersen, undoubtedly, is to trust the process at the foundation for all their success.
And that’s precisely the challenge for head coaches on the top shelf of the profession:
Winning consistently at a high level requires reinvention every now and then.
It rewards coaches who can identify the stench of stale and make the necessary changes.
Even if those changes are a bit ruthless.
To be clear: Shaw and Petersen aren’t the only Pac-12 coaches who should contemplate staff changes.
Here’s a rundown, team-by-team, of our suggestions and expectations:
Arizona: The defensive staff was gutted during the season, so Kevin Sumlin should have a short list of potential coordinators in mind. While we don’t expect changes on offense, they’re needed. The Wildcats were bad everywhere, and Sumlin has one more year to get it right.
Arizona State: The search for a play caller on offense is underway, and don’t rule out the possibility of a similar situation on defense: Coordinator Danny Gonzales is considered a potential candidate for two coaching vacancies in the Mountain West (UNLV and New Mexico).
Cal: We fully expect playcaller Beau Baldwin to return, but the Bears cannot keep trudging along. When your starting quarterback is lost for a month and the offense disintegrates, there’s room for improvement.
Colorado: No changes expected, at least with the coordinators.
Oregon: No changes expected, although we’d argue the Ducks did not maximize their personnel on offense (even with the injuries at receiver).
Oregon State: No changes expected, at least with the coordinators.
Stanford: See above, plus: A deep dive into the defensive approach is needed, as well.
UCLA: Coach Chip Kelly isn’t firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. But at the very least, the Bruins must re-examine every facet of their defense. Jerry Azzinaro is a quality line coach. As a coordinator, he seems miscast.
USC: Beyond the precarious situation with Clay Helton, the Trojans will surely contemplate changes on defense and special teams, and they could have disruption forced upon them on offense: Playcaller Graham Harrell will be in demand.
Utah: No changes expected, but defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley could have head coaching options at the Group of Five level.
Washington: See above. No changes expected on defense unless Jimmy Lake leaves to run his own show.
Washington State: The mid-season departure of defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys resulted in a slight uptick. But Mike Leach’s priority should be hiring a new lieutenant on that side of the ball, rather than promoting interim co-coordinator Roc Bellantoni.
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