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Things can be both expected and jarring.
Take, for instance, Erik Karlsson’s new contract.
Coming in at eight years and $92 million American dollars, Karlsson is now the NHL’s highest-paid defenseman. As he is one of the best players in the NHL, that’s a milestone that’s been expected for years. And since the Sharks acquired him via trade last September, San Jose has been preparing to offer him such a mega deal.
But this is still a “wow” moment. That’s a lot of scratch. Next season, Karlsson will make nearly 14 percent of the NHL’s salary cap.
Now that they’ve successfully retained the player — now that they’ve checked off their top priority on this summer’s to-do list — where do the Sharks go from here?
And, perhaps more importantly, what does this huge contract mean?
Here’s what I’m thinking:
1. The Sharks Stanley Cup window remains wide open
No one will argue with you that a deal as large as Karlsson’s, in a league with a hard salary cap, has the potential to be crippling down the line.
But ultimately, that was the market price for a player of Karlsson’s caliber — he’s not only one of the best defensemen in the NHL, he’s one of the best overall players in the NHL. And hand-wringing about his health and the possible long-term pratfalls doesn’t change the core truth at the base of this deal: The Sharks had to pay Karlsson this much or lose him forever.
And if the Sharks lost him, I think they could have considered their standing as a top Stanley Cup contender to be lost, too.
I don’t think the Sharks gave up much of worth when they traded for Karlsson before the start of the 2018-19 season — there’s no sunk cost fallacy in play here — but if San Jose didn’t offer Karlsson this kind of contract, make no mistake, he would have found them somewhere else.
Yes, hockey is a team sport. Yes, he’s only one player. But he’s a hell of a player who helps his team in massive ways. Karlsson is critical in all three phases of the game and is on the ice for nearly 40 percent of the contest.
Elite blue-line play is hard enough to find — when you have it, you do not let it leave, even if you carry the risk of the player not being anywhere near elite by the time the contract ends. With this deal, the Sharks can continue to boast the best defenseman duo in the NHL in Karlsson and Brent Burns.
For a Sharks team that has come so close, but has never lifted the Cup, it would have been unconscionable to not go all-out in signing Karlsson. Now, if he had chosen to play somewhere else, that’s his prerogative and San Jose’s loss, but the Sharks needed to come to the negotiating table correct. They did that, and because they did, they’re poised to be one of the best teams in a Western Conference that will be wide open again next season.
2. Validation for Doug Wilson
The Sharks’ general manager has been bold over the last two years, and while this team hasn’t claimed hockey’s ultimate prize, that swashbuckling mentality has, unquestionably been a positive for the franchise.
Two seasons ago, Wilson swung a trade-deadline deal for Evander Kane, with the full intent on assimilating him to the team’s culture and then trying to re-sign him in the offseason. It was a bold move — one that was questioned around the league — but it has been an unquestioned success so far.
Kane was an impact player for the Sharks in 2017-18, scoring 13 goals and plenty of physicality in 26 regular season and playoff games. He re-upped with San Jose for seven years and $49 million last offseason — another big, questioned number — but he followed up the new deal with a 30-goal season in 2018-19. The power forward — renounced for his volatility in Buffalo — has received nothing but rave reviews in the dressing room and, at age 27, has become a core player for this San Jose team.
The Karlsson trade was cut from the same cloth — buy low and then buy at market rate. In renting before buying, the Sharks are protecting themselves while also avoiding the perils of a truly open market.
It’s easy to say that it’s brilliant strategy now that it has worked twice, but it’s brilliant strategy.
And that, paired with some of Wilson’s other bold moves — chief among them being his commitment to going younger two seasons ago — has allowed the Sharks to continue to compete despite what could have been a seismic shift in eras over the last few campaigns.
The Sharks have been contenders for years and will likely remain contenders for years. That’s next to impossible to do in today’s NHL, but Wilson is pulling it off.
And what’s to say he won’t continue to make the right maneuvers in the future?
No, the Sharks have not won the Cup, yet, but in this crazy game — in this crazy league — what more could you ask for than to be within striking distance every year?
It’s time Wilson — a frequent punching bag for frustrated fans — starts getting the respect he deserves. A general manager with less vision would have the Sharks sitting in the basement of the Western Conference standings with the once-mighty Blackhawks.
3. There are tough choices ahead
Wilson’s job isn’t done, though. Not by a long shot. With Karlsson receiving a 75 percent raise over his last contract, the Sharks are in a bit of a salary-cap pickle.
The Sharks have an estimated $11.5 million in salary cap space remaining this offseason, with Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Joonas Donskoi and Gustav Nyquist standing as unrestricted free agents and Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc o the market as restricted free agents.
The Sharks are likely to move a blueliner or two to clear some more cap space — Brenden Dillon ($3.27 million, entering last year of contract) and Justin Braun ($3.8, last year) are the top candidates — but that won’t provide enough relief to sign everyone. Neither will a possible Thornton retirement.
Because if Pavelski signs for market rate, his new deal will take up half of the most optimistic salary cap space. Meier should likely land a similar deal.
Add in that Donskoi could command up to $4 million a year and you can see the issue. The Sharks can’t re-sign all of these free agents — not without players taking sizable discounts to stay with the teal.
The reality is that the Sharks are going to lose a couple of players this summer. The face of the franchise, Thornton, and the team captain, Pavelski, seem to be the most likely to go.
That might sour your opinion on the Karlsson contract, but the Sharks knew this was the case all along. This is the price of doing business — the price of contending. They went all-in and got their guy.
The question now is who is going to play around him.
