Conspiracy theories abound on who will win Sunday and head to Super Bowl LIV. The 49ers Faithful are rallying around this one:
Thanks to the Raiders again leaving Oakland, the 49ers are destined to beat the Green Bay Packers for the NFC crown, a springboard to the 49ers’ sixth Lombardi Trophy.
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How’s that?
When the 49ers won their first Super Bowl, it came a month after the 1981 Raiders played their final game in Oakland en route to Los Angeles.
Four more Lombardi Trophy celebrations were held by the 49ers before the Raiders returned to Oakland for the 1995 season.
Now the Raiders are relocating again, to Las Vegas. Hence, the 49ers are destined to win their first Super Bowl in 25 years, and do so in Miami, the same place they won their last one. Right?
But first comes Sunday’s conference finals. Once the No. 2-seed Chiefs host the No. 6-seed Tennessee Titans in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, then it’s Levi’s Stadium’s turn to seize the NFL stage, where the NFC No. 1-seed 49ers battle the No. 2 Packers.
No playoff pairing is more common than the 49ers and Packers. This is their eighth meeting, and only their second with a Super Bowl berth at stake, the other coming in 1997 when the Packers won the George Halas Trophy at Candlestick Park.
The 49ers won their most recent playoff matchups in the 2012 and ’13 seasons, getting past Cal-groomed quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who’ll forever seek revenge on his childhood team for bypassing him atop the 2005 Draft.
To again topple Rodgers and the Packers, here are the 49ers’ five ways to victory (prediction: 31-21) for a Feb. 2 date in Miami:
1. STAY HOT DEFENSIVELY
Championship-caliber defense resurfaced for the playoff opener and shut out the Minnesota Vikings after halftime in a 27-10 win. The 49ers need to reinforce that dominance against another NFC North foe.
It all starts with denying Aaron Jones, who ran for two touchdowns in the Packers’ win Sunday over Seattle. Jones 16 rushing touchdowns in the regular season shared the NFL lead with Tennessee Titans’ workhorse Derrick Henry.
Overall, there shouldn’t be too much concern about the 49ers’ rushing defense. Its scintillating speed, top-grade force and requisite discipline shut down Vikings star Dalvin Cook (nine carries, 18 yards).
Jones first must make it past a defensive line that’s capable of being mostly impenetrable. Then comes the “Hot Boyzz” linebacker corps, including Kwon Alexander, who had no tackles in his celebrated comeback last game but simply elevates those around him.
2. DON’T LET ADAMS THRIVE
What really strikes fear is Rodgers’ connection with leading receiver Davante Adams, who had just five touchdown catches (and 997 yards) in the regular season then proved pivotal in their playoff-opening win (eight catches, 160 yards, two touchdowns).
The Packers likely will try matching up with Emmanuel Moseley, Ahkello Witherspoon’s likely replacement as the starting right cornerback. Adams also will line up in the slot, and this could be K’Waun Williams’ true breakout game as he’s playing at a career-best level.
When he’s not targeting Adams or others on quick passes, Rodgers figures to slide out of a collapsing pocket and take chances down field. Safeties Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt are more renown hitters than interceptors (five picks in 123 regular-season games combined).
The Packers’ suspect line again can be dominated by the 49ers, who racked up five sacks and limited Rodgers to 104 passing yards last game. Nick Bosa accounted for two of the defense’s six sacks in the 49ers’ playoff opener, a positive sign that the pass rush is as hungry as ever, especially with Dee Ford back in the mix.
3. KEEP ON TRUCKIN’
No, the 49ers don’t need another 47-carry outing like last game, but Shanahan always aims for 30 runs and clock control.
The 49ers’ offensive line must remain in sync, along with the complementary blocking of tight ends George Kittle and Levine Toilolo.
Kittle’s health is a concern, after he missed Wednesday’s practice with ankle soreness, nearly 2 1/2 months after an initial, bone-chip injury to that ankle in a Halloween win at Arizona.
Kittle returned from a two-game absence after that injury to shred the Packers, catching all six of his targets for 129 yards, highlighted by a 61-yard touchdown catch.
If the Packers focus too much on Kittle or the 49ers’ running-back roulette (see: Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida), then Garoppolo needs to channel his chemistry with wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne.
4. AVOID PENALTY TRAP
Perhaps you’ve noticed the NFL’s officiating has a way of being a really big deal in really big games. The 49ers, knock on wood, have avoided a bad call costing them a game this season.
Last season’s conference championships, however, showed how vital a penalty – or non-call – can change a Super Bowl bid.
In the NFC title game, officials overlooked a pass-interference penalty in New Orleans to key the Los Angeles Rams’ victory, and that led to a rule change this season allowing coaches to challenge (but rarely win) no-call penalties.
In last year’s AFC Final, Ford’s offside penalty nullified a last-minute interception by the Chiefs and gave the New England Patriots new life en route to an overtime win.
John Hussey will serve as this game’s referee, his first NFC Championship Game assignment in that role. He worked the 49ers’ 48-46, shootout win at New Orleans on Dec. 8, when the 49ers got penalized 10 times (67 yards) but the Saints were the ones who felt shorted.
Hussey was a line judge the last time the 49ers’ hosted the NFC Championship, a 2011 season’s overtime loss to the New York Giants.
The 49ers averaged 7.2 penalties per game in the regular season, and they got penalized five times (38 yards) in their playoff opener.
5. PILE UP POINTS FAST
The 49ers should follow their blueprint from a 37-8 rout of the visiting Packers on Nov. 24: score fast and often. By halftime, they owned a 23-0 lead and Rodgers’ looked as dejected as that 2005 Draft waiting room.
Rodgers recently huddled with Packers legend Brett Favre on the radio and both expressed the need to weather the 49ers’ early storm. “Going on the road in a tough environment, it’s so important to start fast, get that momentum and take a little bit of the juice out of the crowd right away,” Rodgers said on Favre’s SiriusXM NFL Radio.
The 49ers scored on their opening drive last time against the Packers, promptly after a Rodgers strip-sack fumble. Garoppolo also engineered a touchdown drive to open their divisional playoff win over Minnesota. Look for Shanahan’s early script to be on point.
The 49ers scored opening-drive touchdowns in 6 of 16 regular-season games. The only teams with more: The Ravens (eight), Packers (seven) and Chiefs (seven).
Also worth noting is how the 49ers fare when they win the coin toss and defer to the first possession after halftime. Then again, we all know it’s how you finish, if Down-To-The-Wire December taught us anything about this team.
“You always want to get off to a fast start, it’s always better,” Shanahan said. “But, I mean, it’s not everything. You just want to make sure you’re winning at the end.”
