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Utah has won the South, officially.
USC’s regular season is over, officially.
The Clay Helton Watch is on, officially.
The Trojan no longer need a head coach to lead them into the Pac-12 championship game because they aren’t playing in the Pac-12 championship game.
Exactly what new president Carol Folt and newer athletic director Mike Bohn have planned for the university’s most prominent position, we can only speculate.
Folt has told the donors and trustees to mind their own business.
Bohn has told nobody his business.
Will they keep Helton, whose contract runs through the 2023 season?
Will they pursue Urban Meyer?
Will they wait for — and then beg — Ed Orgeron?
Wait for — and then beg — Kyle Whittingham?
Promote Graham Harrell?
(USC likes to promote from within, if you hadn’t heard.)
Nobody knows the plan, but we know the calculation.
And it’s expensive.
It reportedly would cost the Trojans $20 million to eat the remaining years of Helton’s contract and change out the coaching staff.
The exact figure — $20 million, $18 million, $22 million — is inconsequential.
Any which way you write the check, it’s a truckload.
Also: It’s only half the equation.
The other half is the cost of keeping Helton.
That’s a truckload-and-a-half.
If you were told there would be no math in this column, our apologies …
USC averaged 72,683 fans for six home games in 2017, when they won 11 games and the conference championship with Sam Darnold.
Then came the Crash of 2018: Five wins overall, zero-for-California and an average attendance of 55,449.
Then came the Lynn Swann Statement (“We acknowledge and understand our deficiencies in areas that include …”), the decision to retain Helton, a slight uptick in victories and an average crowd this season of 59,385 for six home games.
What happens on Saturdays next fall if Helton is retained again?
The attendance could fall below the 2018 bar, but let’s avoid a full doom-and-gloom scenario and instead use the average of the past two seasons to determine a working figure for 2020.
That would place 57,403 fans in the Coliseum for each of six dates.
The difference between the Darnold-fueled total in 2017 and our 2020 projection is 15,280.
Now multiply 15,280 by six home games and you have 91,680 fewer butts in the seats over the course of a season.
Now multiply that by an estimated $100 in revenue per fan per game.
(That amount includes the ticket, concessions, a slice of the parking and, to be honest, is probably low. But better to be conservative.)
At $100 per fan per game and 91,680 fewer fans per game, that projects to $9.1 million in lost revenue for 2020, as compared to the presumed amount for 2017, when the Trojans performed closer to their historical standard.
And that’s not all.
One could reasonable make the case that the Trojans lost $9 million in game day revenue this season when Swann decided to bring Helton back.
So the cost of keeping Helton in 2019-20 is actually closer to $20 million — the reported buyout figure.
And that’s not all.
Our projection for the game day revenue decline doesn’t account for a tsunami effect that could result from a soul-sapping, blowout loss to Alabama in the season opener.
And that’s not all.
Our calculation for the game day revenue decline doesn’t include a decrease in merchandise sales or lost donations — particularly major donations and suite sales — that could come if Folt and Bohn opt for a status quo approach.
Suddenly, that buyout doesn’t seem so hefty.
But the cost of retaining Helton isn’t limited to budgetary concerns.
It would exact a high price in terms of personnel:
The Trojans are limping along the recruiting trail, with a 2020 class that ranks 11th overall in the conference and sixth on a rating-per-player basis.
Many of the prospects we’re accustomed to seeing on the Coliseum field are headed elsewhere — to Oregon and Washington, yes, but also to Clemson, LSU and Alabama.
Keep Helton, and USC would …
Drive a stake in the heart of its 2020 class …
Severely jeopardize its 2021 class, because current juniors will be finalizing their short lists this winter …
And put the Trojans far behind with the 2022 class, because current sophomores — especially those in the Trinity League (Mater Dei, St. John Bosco) — will be more open-minded about initial inquiries from powerhouse across the country.
Keep Helton, and USC would lose two recruiting classes and undermine a third.
None of that would preclude the Trojans from winning the division or even the conference.
Kyle Whittingham, Chris Petersen and David Shaw have proven that the proper alignment of scheme, player development and personnel can produce a successful season.
But you don’t compete for national championships on an annual basis — you don’t have a seat reserved at the table with Ohio State and Alabama — with mid-level recruits.
(Left unsaid until this point in the column: What if the Trojans commit to keeping Helton, then Harrell leaves this winter for a better opportunity?)
Sure, integrity is the word of the day, month and year at USC.
And sure, Helton clears that bar for Folt and for Bohn.
And maybe Meyer doesn’t.
This isn’t about Helton vs. Meyer.
It’s about what USC wants to be.
Are the Trojans happy with eight- or nine-wins seasons? Are they content competing with Utah for the South title and beating Oregon or Washington for the conference championship?
Or do the Trojans view national championships as their goal and Ohio State and Alabama as their competition?
If the answer is the former, keep Helton. He’ll get them eight or nine wins more often than not.
If the answer is the latter, a change is required. The evidence is overwhelming.
Here’s another way to view the situation — a question for Bohn himself to ask and answer:
Would he dismiss Helton next November if the Trojans have another mediocre season (by their standards)?
Because if the answer is yes — of course, it’s yes — then you make the move now.
You don’t wait.
You never wait.
If you’re going to make a coaching change eventually, you make the coaching change immediately.
Waiting is costly.
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