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PHOENIX — Major League Baseball’s August 31 waiver deadline created intrigue, suspense and above all, a massive amount of confusion.
Most San Francisco Giants fans (and most beat writers) couldn’t explain the intricacies of the late-summer waiver deadline, but everyone knows the impact Cody Ross had after the club acquired him following the July 31 non-waiver deadline in 2010.
The Giants placed a waiver claim on Ross to prevent the San Diego Padres from adding him to their outfield and the rest was history.
August waiver trades like the one that brought Ross to San Francisco and the deal that sent Andrew McCutchen to the Yankees last season are now a relic of yesteryear. MLB abandoned the waiver deadline this spring and moved to a uniform July 31 deadline, meaning all trades must be executed before the final two months of the season.
That’s significant, especially for the San Francisco Giants and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who will likely be one of the most motivated sellers on the market this summer.
It’s impossible to know how the elimination of the August 31 deadline will impact the market, but there are several ways it could benefit the Giants this year. Contenders already have their eyes on Giants players who will become available this summer, and some hungry teams with a dire need could jump in front of others to execute a deal.
That group of contenders willing to add could be larger, too, as more clubs see opportunities to vie for postseason berths in July than the end of August. With four weeks to go in the season, fewer teams are willing to part with top prospects in exchange for a month-plus of a free agent-to-be’s services, but in early July, organizations seeking an advantage over their competition should have Zaidi’s number on speed dial.
What will the trade market look like for the Giants? Here’s an early guide featuring nine players who could be on the move.
Madison Bumgarner: After the Giants’ slow start, it’s less of a question of if and more of a question of when Bumgarner is dealt. The Giants could hang onto him and assign him a qualifying offer at the end of the year, but several playoff-bound contenders should be willing to put together a nice package to acquire Bumgarner. The Giants likely won’t land multiple Top 100 prospects for their ace, but they could secure one plus another young talent that their scouts value.
Will Smith: Outside of Bumgarner, Smith could net the largest return for the Giants this summer as the free agent-to-be has been lights-out in the closer role to this point in the year. Just about every contender could use another reliable late-inning reliever and it’s possible Smith will be the top southpaw on the market. Any National League team that will have to face Christian Yelich or Cody Bellinger quite often should be targeting Smith.
Pablo Sandoval: Sandoval has quietly become the Giants’ most valuable player…and one of their top trade pieces. He’s a switch-hitter who has a knack for delivering off the bench, but he can also fill in at multiple corner infield positions. A team like the Yankees that has already lost third baseman Miguel Andujar for the season could be interested, but just about every club could use an asset like Sandoval who brings energy and passion to a clubhouse.
Sam Dyson: Unlike Smith, Dyson still has another year of control left, but that could make him even more attractive to teams seeking veteran right-handed bullpen arms. Dyson is durable, strikes out more than a batter per inning, can induce double plays under pressure and has only allowed one home run in 21 1/3 innings. The former Rangers closer can also lose his command at a moment’s notice, so the Giants might be eager to trade him sooner rather than later.
Derek Holland: Even if Holland didn’t openly criticize the Giants’ front office, he still would have found himself on the trade market this summer. By July, any team acquiring Holland will owe him less than $4 million, and the Giants are in position to pay out the remainder of his deal if a contending club sends a better prospect in exchange for covering Holland’s salary. Will the move to the bullpen hurt his trade value? It shouldn’t. Holland was likely going to be a long reliever or a matchup lefty on a contending club even before his struggles forced the Giants to take action.
Joe Panik: The Giants have a stunning lack of middle infield depth, but that won’t preclude them from dealing Panik if a suitor offers up a solid prospect. Panik got off to a dismal 14-for-85 start, but he has 16 hits in his last 48 at-bats and owns an impressive .889 OPS over his last 13 games. If he continues to produce at that clip over the next month, Panik could represent an upgrade for a small group of contenders with uncertain situations at second base.
Tony Watson: Out of Smith, Dyson and Watson, it’s Watson who will be the hardest veteran reliever for Zaidi to trade this summer. The Giants structured his contract so the lefty would hit a number of key incentives that would inflate his 2019 and 2020 salaries and he locked in big raises with a strong season last year. Still, Watson is a model of consistency and even if he doesn’t strike a ton of batters out, he induces soft contact and has finished with a sub-3.10 ERA in each of his last six seasons.
Kevin Pillar: Pillar is under contract through 2020, but teams around the league (including the Giants) will view him as a potential non-tender candidate as his $5.8 million salary will likely increase in his final year of arbitration next year. The Giants acquired Pillar to fortify their lineup against lefties, but trading him this summer would allow him to help a contender out as a fourth outfielder and would clear the way for Steven Duggar to return to his natural position in center. Moving Pillar would allow the Giants to give even more young outfielders longer auditions in the corners.
Drew Pomeranz: The Giants signed Pomeranz with the hope that a return to the National League West would rejuvenate his career. That hasn’t happened yet, but Pomeranz has shown glimpses of his former self, particularly when he tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball in Toronto. It will likely take until late July for Pomeranz to prove his value to a contender, but veteran lefty Gio Gonzalez had a 4.57 ERA last summer when he was traded from Washington to Milwaukee. The Brewers even landed a former third round draft pick in that deal, so there’s plenty of time for the Giants to find a taker for Pomeranz.
Others in consideration: Brandon Belt, Jeff Samardzija, Mark Melancon, Nick Vincent, Trevor Gott: Nearly every Giants player outside of Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford is a candidate to be traded, but some including Belt, Melancon and Samardzija have contracts that will be easier to move in the offseason. Vincent and Gott and even second-year righty Reyes Moronta can aid a postseason team looking for more bullpen help, but it’s unclear if Zaidi is willing to decimate his entire bullpen to prepare for the future.
