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Trying to predict who will headline the Outside Lands Music and Arts Festival in San Francisco has become an annual obsession for many music fans.
And I’m as guilty as anyone.
I’m simply not willing to wait patiently until the lineup is officially revealed, likely in a month or so. (Last year’s card was announced on April 3.)
I’d much rather playing the guessing game, peering deeply into my crystal ball — as well as various topic/message boards on the net — to try and figure out who will top the bill.
So, here’s a look at some of the seemingly possible headliners for the 2019 festival, which runs Aug. 9-11 in Golden Gate Park in San Francisco.
I’ll start with the surest bets and work my way down to the long shots.
For more information, visit www.sfoutsidelands.com.
Chance the Rapper
Likelihood: 85 percent
Previous OSL appearance: 2016
The skinny: This makes sense on so many levels. He’s set to release his debut album — which follows his phenomenally successful mixtape “Coloring Book” — in July. He apparently has a strong relationship with festival promoters Another Planet Entertainment, which has produced a number of sold-out shows for him in the past. And he’s got a huge following in the Bay Area (as well as, of course, pretty much everywhere else). In other words, there’s a very good chance you’ll see Chance on the bill.
Strokes
Likelihood: 80 percent
Previous OSL appearance: 2010
The skinny: The garage-rock revivalists, who delivered the near-perfect debut “Is This It” in 2001, are on the comeback trail and set to deliver their first live shows in more than two years. It’s been even longer since vocalist Julian Casablancas and crew performed their last Bay Area outing, which came way back in 2011. Thus, fans are crossing their fingers that the Strokes will end up on the 2019 OSL bill. That seems to be a very plausible scenario, given that the group has already committed to several major festivals — including headlining the Governors Ball in New York — but has nothing currently showing on the itinerary past mid-July.
Childish Gambino
Likelihood: 70 percent
Previous OSL appearance: None
The skinny: Outside Lands organizers like to pride themselves booking headliners that aren’t playing many other festival gigs. So, the fact that Gambino is appearing at both Coachella and Bonnaroo might be a strike against him here. Also, deduct points for his having played both the SAP Center and the Oakland Arena back in December. But Gambino is just so hot right now — especially after his historic night at the Grammy Awards — that’s it’s hard to imagine organizers passing on Gambino if he’s willing to play.
Tool
Likelihood: 60 percent
Previous OSL appearance: None
The skinny: This would work so well at Outside Lands, right? Just imagine vocalist Maynard James Keenan and company taking the festival’s main stage, just as the day slips to night, and delivering a punishing alt-metal set of longtime Tool favorites — and, potentially, new music as well. Yes, we said new music. It appears Tool is just about ready to release its long-awaited follow up to 2006’s “10,000 Days.” And what better why to celebrate than with a headlining set at Outside Lands?
Travis Scott
Likelihood: 50 percent
Previous OSL appearance: None
The skinny: He’s one of the hottest artists in the entire music business. Plus, he’s never played Outside Lands before. So, one would think that Scott would be very high on the promoter’s wish list. He’s already got a few festivals booked and we could definitely see him adding at least one more.
Diana Ross
Likelihood: 40
Previous OSL appearance: None
The skinny: Outside Lands likes to close on a classic note, typically reserving the closing-night headliner slot for legacy artist. Past legends to fill that bill at the festival include Stevie Wonder, Elton John, The Who and Lionel Richie. Now, it should be Ross’ turn, to lead thousands of fans in Golden Gate Park through a sing-along of some greatest songs of all time.
Phish
Likelihood: 30
Previous OSL appearance: 2011
The skinny: One might think that jam-band music would go over like gangbusters at this festival. After all, wasn’t the genre basically invented right here at Golden Gate Park? Yet, OSL seems to be steering away from jam-band music, perhaps because it so divisive, with seemingly most people loving it or hating it. So don’t expect to see the return of Phish — at least not at Outside Lands in 2019. The group, which ranks among the best live acts of all time, is more likely to do another multi-night stand at the Bill Graham Civic in October, perhaps leading up to a Vegas run over Halloween.
Pearl Jam
Likelihood: 20 percent
Previous OSL appearance: 2009
I really thought that the grunge-rock titans would play Outside Lands in 2018, but they once again skipped over California with their tour plans. It would be great to see Pearl Jam performs its first full-length gig in the Bay Area since November 2013, but I’m not expecting it at Outside Lands this year. Fingers crossed for 2020.
Green Day
Likelihood: 10 percent
Previous OSL appearance: None
The East Bay band has to eventually play the festival, right? That’s why I keep predicting that it will happen, year after year. But I’m not doing it this year. Part of the reason is that it still seems too soon after the band headlined its own huge Oakland Coliseum concert last year. Mostly, it’s because I don’t want to be wrong again about what seems like such a natural pairing.
Adele
Likelihood: 1 percent
Previous OSL appearance: None
Maybe 1 percent is too high. It’s hard to imagine Adele doing any dates until after her fourth album drops in December.
