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SANTA CLARA — Under normal circumstances, 49ers second-year head coach Kyle Shanahan would be on the hot seat after his team was embarrassed by the Rams Sunday.
Under normal circumstances, quarterback C.J. Beathard — a player Shanahan hand-picked and has backed up, full-throat, time and time again — wouldn’t start next week’s game, either.
Under normal circumstances, there would be plenty of outspoken concern about the direction of this 49ers franchise, which now sits at 1-6 this season.
But these are anything but normal circumstances.
The second Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL in Kansas City last month, the 49ers’ season — and all of the hopes and dreams of making the playoffs that accompanied it — went out the window.
From that point on, Shanahan had plausible deniability for his team’s poor play this season.
But even amid these strange times, the question must be asked: at what point is Shanahan culpable for this team’s failures?
At what point does the plausible deniability for the Niners’ at-times-abysmal play expire?
Luckily, I think we’re going to get an answer to those questions in the 49ers’ next three games.
Less than a week after choking away a road win in Green Bay, the Niners were downright manhandled by the Rams Sunday.
Shanahan’s team didn’t look like a few high draft picks and a healthy Garoppolo away from competing with L.A. — it looked like a laughingstock.
Perhaps Sunday’s blowout loss was an outlier. The Niners have been competitive for most of this season — racking up moral victories — but on Sunday, they went up against arguably the best team in the NFL and they turned the ball over four times. It was bound to look ugly.
But the Niners will be playing anything but juggernauts in the coming weeks. And if the Niners can’t get a win or two in the next three games — all coming against teams that, like them, have one win to their name — Sunday’s loss will be retroactively seen as a forewarning, not an abnormality.
It will be an indictment on Shanahan and his time in Santa Clara.
Yes, we need to keep in mind the big picture with these Niners — it’s all about developing players for 2019 and beyond and getting a good draft pick — but at some point, the results on the field need to matter.
This is that point.
The Niners play the Cardinals (1-6) in Arizona next Sunday, host the Raiders (1-5) the following Thursday, and then get a super bye week (a full weekend off, plus a day) before hosting the Giants (1-5) on Monday Night Football.
If the Niners don’t look as good (or better) than three teams that have unquestionably bottomed out, what does that say about the state of Shanahan’s rebuild?
It would say that two years in, it hasn’t gone anywhere.
And that would be unacceptable.
Because while Garoppolo is good — we saw that last year — he cannot be the only thing separating this Niners team being the worst squad in pro football. He’s not that good.
And as Shanahan said Sunday in defense of Beathard — who turned the ball over three times and is averaging three turnovers a game this season: “It’s not just C.J., it’s everyone”
Success can’t just be Jimmy, either.
At the same time, you could have fooled me.
Beathard is Shanahan’s guy. The Niners coach advocated to trade up to take him in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft, despite the fact that he wasn’t seen as a draftable prospect by some teams. Why? Because he was seen as a fit in Shanahan’s system.
Are you seeing much of a fit?
Beathard has been better this year — we’ve seen glimpses of progression — but he’s 1-8 as a starter and is yet to have a turnover-free game in his NFL career.
He’s simply not the answer — even as a backup — but Shanahan seems content to ride him to the end of the year, defending the quarterback at every turn.
“C.J. is the best quarterback we have in our building,” Shanahan tersely said after Sunday’s loss.
That might be true — Nick Mullens is probably not the answer — but if that’s the case, what does that say about Shanahan’s judgment? Remember, he — whether he wants to admit it or not — has final say on the Niners’ roster.
And what does that defensiveness — that manifested stubbornness — say about Shanahan’s temperament?
Beathard might be the best quarterback in the building, but Shanahan didn’t have to stick in the building. (It’s probably too late and a bit counterproductive to sign a street free agent now.) Remember, when it was announced that Garoppolo was going to miss the rest of the season, NFL officials reportedly asked the 49ers to trade for a more high-profile quarterback because of the team’s number of prime-time games.
(Luckily, Sunday’s game was flexed out of the prime-time Sunday Night Football slot.)
At the time, Shanahan responded to a question about that report with condescension.
”It’s very comical,” Shanahan said. “I wish we could worry about that stuff and help people out. That’s definitely the last of our worries.”
He’s made a big bet on Beathard, and this season is him doubling down on that bet.
At least he’ll get a high draft pick out of it.
But the quarterback’s play is enough to make you question if Shanahan should be holding all of the 49ers’ chips.
Remember, the Rams didn’t need a multi-year rebuild to get to where they are now. They hired Sean McVay a month before the Niners hired Shanahan. McVay took over a 4-12 team, Shanahan a 2-14 squad.
And last year, the Rams won the division behind the NFL’s best offense. The Niners — who were admittedly in a more difficult spot — started 0-9 before Garoppolo showed up and rattled off five garbage-time wins.
This year, the Niners were supposed to close the gap on L.A. — or at least be a good rival to them in the NFC West.
Is it a fair standard? No. But that’s the standard.
And right now, the franchises couldn’t look further apart.
Again, all of this hand-wringing is wiped away if the Niners win two of their next three games. Perhaps even just one win will get the Niners back on track (so long as all three games are close).
This team can be bad — the Garoppolo-is-injured excuse can stretch pretty far — it just can’t be the worst.
That’s not a high bar. In year two — with Garoppolo at quarterback or not — Shanahan’s team needs to be able to clear it.
