The NFL season is set to start this month, with the beginning of training camps on July 28, and while it’s fun to look at the schedule and guess wins and losses, the truth is that success in the league is dictated by success in the division.
So how do the 49ers stack up against their three rivals in the NFC West?
Let’s go position by position and find out:
Quarterback: Second
Let’s get right to the controversy.
Jimmy Garoppolo is seen as a bit of an enigma for the national media and 49ers fans alike. Here’s what I know about him: He’s better than the Rams’ Jared Goff, but he’s not as good as Seattle’s Russell Wilson.
Fair enough?
Here comes the conundrum: Is he better than Arizona’s Kyler Murray?
I think I have a read on the situation right now, but there’s no question that it’s fluid.
I think Garoppolo ranks second in the division when it comes to the quarterback position because he deserves the benefit of the doubt, if you will. After all, he’s played more football than the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and he quarterbacked the No. 1 seed in the NFC — a team that played in the Super Bowl last year.
(It’s been argued that Garoppolo was on pace to be the Super Bowl MVP had the Niners held their lead. I still believe that Nick Bosa was the best player on the field for the first three quarters of that game.)
But it should be noted that Murray is currently holding 10-to-1 odds to win MVP this upcoming season. Avid readers and listeners know that I told everyone to get in when they were 30-to-1 Are those odds inflated? Of course.
Garoppolo is sitting at 40-to-1.
There’s value in those odds, but the bookies and the public weaving a narrative: there’s not much belief in Garoppolo and a tremendous amount of hype around Murray.
This micro-battle is going to fascinating to watch this season — even if the quarterbacks are willfully ignorant to the fact that we’ll be comparing them week-by-week.
Running Back: First
The position is, on the whole, handled by committee now. That, of course, is the case for the 49ers, who I would argue have the best stable of backs in the division.
It should be noted, though, that this competition is really tight.
Frankly, you can rank the other three teams in the division in any order you want.
The Cardinals don’t want to use the running back all that often — what with their Air Raid offense and all — but Kenyan Drake is absolutely elite in that spread scheme. Last year he averaged more than five yards per carry in his eight games with Arizona. If not for the questionable depth behind him, I’d rank the Cardinals higher, perhaps even No. 1.
I like the Rams’ new one-two punch of Darrell Henderson and rookie Cam Akers. Both backs are perfect scheme fits for the outside zone scheme that Sean McVay runs. But it’s all projection with those two. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised that if, at the end of the season, we view the Rams’ rushing attack as elite. It should also be noted that the Rams have outstanding depth with Malcolm Brown and John Kelly behind those two youngsters.
Seattle is going to churn through running backs, but Chris Carson is a solid player and Carlos Hyde still has something to give. Both provide the Seahawks with the high-floor, low-ceiling play they, for some reason, crave. Put them at No. 2, put them at No. 4 — just know they won’t be the best running back committee in the division this season.
The Niners should be first because Raheem Mostert, like Drake and the youngsters in LA, is a perfect scheme fit for the Niners. In an outside zone scheme, running backs need to read the blocking, put a foot in the ground, and accelerate. There are few players in the NFL better at doing those three things than Mostert. Last year, only Lamar Jackson crossed the line of scrimmage at a faster average speed than the Florida man. He’s the best back in the division.
The Niners’ depth at the position is solid, though unspectacular. Still, it’s enough to make them No. 1 on this list.
Tevin Coleman’s best football is behind him, but as we saw in the playoffs, he still has something to give the 49ers in spurts — especially if his workload is limited. Kyle Shanahan loves the fact that he touched the ball 778 times in his career and has fumbled a grand total of seven times.
Behind those two are Jeff Wilson and Jerrick McKinnon. Both are wild cards, with Wilson being viewed by fans in a positive way and McKinnon, who is yet to take a regular-season snap for the Niners because of injury, viewed in a negative light. Both might have more value as third-down backs — aka pass catchers — than running backs, but there’s appreciable value there.
Again, it’s tight at a position that “doesn’t matter” but the Niners have it.
Offensive line: first
This is, without question, the basis of the 49ers’ run-game success.
This is also a landslide victory over their rivals by the 49ers.
I’d argue that offensive line play at the NFL level has never been worse, but you’d never know that if you only watched the 49ers. San Francisco’s two tackles, Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey, are far and away the best in the division. Laken Tomlinson is a solid performer any team would want at guard. Center and right guard are question marks going into the season, but the Niners have solid options at both spots. Weston Richburg, if healthy, is a plus performer at center. Ben Garland, his backup — and perhaps the Week 1 starter — is better than replacement level.
The right guard spot will be a fight between three players: Tom Compton, Dan Brunskill, and Colton McKivitz.
Is the line perfect? No.
But looking at Arizona and the Rams’ mess and whatever they have cobbled together in Seattle, the 49ers “problems” are of the champaign variety.
Tight end: First
George Kittle is the best tight end in the NFL. The Niners win this category with ease, despite questions with depth. (Though I am high on Charlie Woerner’s role on the 2020 team.)
Arizona doesn’t really use a tight end, so that’s a disqualification.
The Rams have a solid one-two punch in Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett, but neither can block at an effective level. Two players with one dimension don’t equal an all-around tight end.
Seattle added Greg Olsen this offseason. If it was 2016, we could have a conversation about their proximity to the 49ers on the rankings, but it’s 2020, so we’ll just say that he’s a solid player and a massive upgrade from what they were rocking last season.
Wide receiver: Fourth
Yikes.
It seems there’s a reason Kittle is the No. 1 target in the passing game.
The drop-off between No. 1 and No. 4 in this category isn’t massive, but it’s hard for any rational football fan to argue that the Niners don’t have the worst receiving core in the NFC West heading into the 2020 season.
Let’s start with the No. 1 receiver. Everyone likes Deebo Samuel, but he doesn’t stack up with Arizona’s Nuke Hopkins, LA’s Cooper Kupp, or Seattle’s Tyler Lockett. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a solid player (if his foot isn’t broken), but to put him above any of those tried-and-true receivers is wishful thinking. We’re not going to do that here.
It should also be noted that the Niners don’t know who their No. 2 receiver is going to be this season. Is it rookie Brandon Aiyuk? It might be Dante Pettis or Kendrick Bourne. I know the social media hype machine is working overtime for Bourne this offseason, but he has played in 43 regular-season games and has caught five or more passes a grand total of two times in that span. He might have a winning personality and be good at posting to Twitter and Instagram, but let’s pump the brakes a bit.
I don’t think there’s a question that any team would rather have DK Metcalf, Robert Woods, or Larry Fitzgerald in 2020.
The Niners’ third receiver is the loser of the No. 2 battle with slot receiver Trent Taylor now in the mix. Are any of them better than Christian Kirk or Andy Isabella in Arizona? What about Josh Reynolds in LA? Maybe they’re better than Philip Dorsett and David Moore in Seattle, but that’s a close call.
In all, the Niners have a ton of potential at the position, they might jump up these rankings with a quickness in 2020, but heading into the season, it’s hard to put them above their top rivals.
Defensive line: First
The best defensive line in the NFL wins in a landslide.
The Rams boast the second-best defensive line in the division, with the league’s best player, Aaron Donald, in the middle with Michael Brockers on the end, but there are too many question marks around them.
Seattle is functional but in no way impressive. They might use two recent Raiders as their defensive ends, Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin. If you watched the Raiders in recent years, you know that’s not a good sign.
And the Cardinals might have an elite pass rusher in Chandler Jones, but forgive me for thinking that new defensive tackle Jordan Phillips isn’t going to repeat his 9.5 sack season from 2019. (Philips had 5.5 sacks, total, in the four years ahead.)
Yes, I’ll take Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Dee Ford, and the best depth at the position in the league over all of those guys.
Linebackers: First
This one was tougher than I thought it would be.
Arizona upgraded at the position this offseason, but neither Jordan Hicks nor De’Vondre Campbell were any good for their teams last year. This is still one of the worst units in the NFL, unless first-round pick Isaiah Simmons is the truth starting in Week 1. I like Simmons, but I can’t see that happening.
The Rams’ situation is worse than Arizona’s. I think their best linebacker is Micah Kiser, who has four tackles in his career. Yes, they might have the worst linebacker core in the NFL. No wonder it’s an “open competition” down there.
The tricky part was comparing the Niners to the Seahawks.
It’s important to respect what the Seahawks’ Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright have done in their careers. Wagner, in particular, is still one of the best in the game, especially when he has a competent free safety behind him, as he had late last year when Quandre Diggs joined the fold for Seattle. Wright has fallen off, but he’s still a solid player.
That said, I’ll take Fred Warner, Kwon Alexander, and — the trump card — Dre Greenlaw over what Seattle has. Warner is one of the five or six best linebackers in the NFL himself — the perfect encapsulation of a modern Mike with his elite coverage skills, all while maintaining the ability to stop the run.
Alexander, when healthy, is a game-changer for the Niners. Again, he’s a tremendous encapsulation of what a weak-side linebacker should be in this pass-happy age. He’s a top-15 linebacker in the league.
And while I wasn’t high on Greenlaw when he took over for the injured Alexander last year, he proved me wrong on a near-weekly basis. He’s not part of the NFL’s elite at his position or anything, but I think he’d be the best linebacker on two of the teams in the Niners’ division — that says so much.
Cornerback: Third
Every team in this division has an elite cornerback. The 49ers have Richard Sherman, the Rams have Jalen Ramsey, the Seahawks have Quinton Dunbar, and the Cardinals have Patrick Peterson, who in recent years has turned into the worst of the bunch.
That’s a lot of talent, and it’s hard to differentiate between the best three of that group.
Sherman was Pro Football Focus’ best cornerback last year. But Dunbar was No. 2 on that list. And Ramsey, when on his A-game, stacks up as well or better than those two.
Let’s eliminate Arizona from the running for top billing and look at the No. 2 corners. This is where things start to fall apart for the Niners.
Emmanuel Mosley and Ahkello Witherspoon will battle for the corner job opposite Sherman for a second straight year. Neither can be considered a plus going into the season.
Meanwhile, the Rams have Troy Hill, one of the most underrated players in the NFL, having allowed only 23 receptions on over 300 coverage snaps last year, per PFF.
And the Seahawks have Shaq Griffin as their No. 2. He’s arguably a top-10 corner in the league.
Seattle also has Tre Flowers. They have the best corners in the division.
The Niners do have one of the best slot corners in the league, K’waun Williams, while the Rams will try David Long at the position after losing the aptly named Nickell Robey-Coleman leave in free agency — perhaps you could view these two teams as having a tie at the position overall.
But the Rams have a higher ceiling and their depth is every bit as good, if not better, than the 49ers’. They get the slight edge for the runner up spot.
Safety: second
The NFC West is not a good safety division. I found that to be a bit of a surprise.
That said, every team in the divisions seems competent at the position, which shouldn’t be overlooked.
As such, it was really tough to determine who is the best.
Of course, Arizona came in fourth. I like Budda Baker, but Jalen Thompson is not a plus player.
I picked the Rams, with John Johnson and Taylor Rapp at No. 3. Both are rock-solid players, but I need to see Rapp more and Johnson had a down year in 2019.
So it comes down to the Niners, with Jimmie Ward and Jaquaski Tartt, and= the Seahawks, with Bradley McDougald and Diggs.
I gave the edge to Seattle. McDougald is really good in coverage and Diggs is one of the better safeties in the NFL. The Niners’ duo has a great connection, and I think it’s underrated, overall, but the best of Seattle’s back-end was a level above the Niners’ last year.
And it should be noted that no one — not a single team — has much depth at this position in the NFC West.
Special teams: Third
This is a tough determination too. The NFC West is stacked at punter. You can’t have any conversation about the best punters in the league without including all four spiralmeisters in this division.
Does anyone have an advantage? Maybe the Niners fall behind the pack a bit there.
But San Francisco can make up for it at kicker. Robbie Gould might not have a powerful leg, but it is accurate (at least it has been over the course of his career). Arizona’s Zane Gonzales has a bigger leg and knocked through 88 percent of his kicks last year — he’s probably the best kicker in the division. Seattle’s Jason Myers is pretty good, too — the Seahawks stay in the running. But the Rams fall off here — they appear to be going with a rookie out of Miami-Ohio this season.
Ultimately, it’s hard to argue that the Cardinals, with Isabella as their returner, or the Seahawks, who put Lockett back to return kicks, aren’t the best special teams units in the division. The Niners are really good at the third facet of the game — the areas that aren’t really quantified like coverage and open-field tackling — but their returner for the 2020 season remains unknown.
Overall: First
It’s the best division in football, but if the 49ers can stay healthy, they have more talent than any other team in the division. But the room for error is low in 2020.
