California’s rain and snow season is getting off to a fast start as Thanksgiving week brought more storms, launched the ski season early and raised cautious hope for a wet year after five years of drought.
Two wet months in a row have boosted seasonal rainfall totals to 2.83 inches in San Jose, 125 percent of seasonal normal, and 4 inches or 148 percent of normal in Livermore.
In the northern Sierra region that produces much of the snow and runoff that gets California through the long, hot summer, it’s been even wetter. Some 17.9 inches of precipitation has fallen in October and November — about 200 percent of average, state officials reported Monday.
But while water managers are pleased with the abundant early rains, they caution that it’s too early to predict whether this is going to end up as a wet or dry year by the time spring rolls around.
And in a move that reinforces that cautionary outlook, state officials announced Monday there is a chance of sharp cuts next spring in water distributed to local water agencies.
In a preliminary outlook, the state Department of Water Resources said it can count on allocating as little as 20 percent of requested water supplies to start, hinting drought fears are far from over in California. In most years, the initial state water allocations increase as more storms produce more rain and snow later in the season.
“October’s storms and subsequent rainfall have brightened the picture, but we could still end up in a sixth year of drought,” said Mark Cowin, the state Department of Water Resources.
Much of the rainfall in October and November was soaked up by the state’s dry soil, although later storms will increase runoff into streams and reservoirs.
“We are off to a fast start, but rain in October and November is not a good indicator for what falls the entire year,” said Stephen Nemeth, a state water resources engineer. “We have had two very wet months followed by very dry ones before.”
California’s three wettest months historically are December, January and February.
While some rain fell Monday, the rest of the week is expected to be mostly dry other than a passing storm on Wednesday that is likely to produce perhaps trace amounts of water.
“We’re basically looking at a dry spell for the next week,” said Wil Pi, a forecaster for the National Weather Service.
Since last Wednesday, close to an inch of rain had fallen in San Jose and Oakland.
Last week’s storms, however, brought more moisture to the Sierra and produced an early start to the Sierra ski season.
Northstar at Tahoe opened to skiers on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, and has had more than 26 inches of snow fall since that day, said Marcie Bradley, a Northstar spokeswoman.
“Any time you open before Thanksgiving is a great year for us,” said Bradley. “It’s a great start.”
California remains under a drought emergency called by Gov. Jerry Brown on Jan. 17, 2014. While Northern California had nearly average rainfall last winter and spring, Southern California was drier than average. As a result, many reservoirs began the season with lower-than-average storage levels.
“One year with nearly average rainfall only makes a dent in a drought lasting for five years,” said Nemeth, the state water engineer.
The water level in Shasta Lake, the largest reservoir in California, is at 107 percent of normal for Nov. 27. But Oroville in Butte County has only 70 percent of normal for the date, and San Luis near Los Banos has 67 percent of normal.
State officials said water levels in several reservoirs south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta are down in part because of water pumping limits aimed at protecting the Delta smelt and other wild fish.
The East Bay Municipal Utility District said its reservoirs in the East Bay and Sierra foothills have 113 percent of normal water levels for this time of year.
“We’re feeling good about our supplies early in the season,” said Jenesse Miller, a district spokeswoman, “but it’s important for people to save.”
