SANTA CLARA — A familiar and spooky scenario is afoot: first-year 49ers coach wins his debut, loses the next five games and looks to snap the skid at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That’s where the 49ers are under Chip Kelly, and it’s where they were in 2005 with Mike Nolan.
Nolan’s outfit — that being his flailing team, not literally his two-piece suit — indeed beat the Bucs, 15-10, to halt its losing streak. It didn’t do much, however, as the 49ers dropped their next seven games en route to a 4-12 season.
What will it take for Kelly to end the longest losing streak he’s ever endured as a head coach? Before we get to those five factors, let’s put this draught in some historical perspective with an optimistic hint of a turnaround.
Bill Walsh opened his 1979 tenure 0-6, and he lost eight straight the following year after a 3-0 start. Steve Mariucci endured an 8-game losing streak in 1999, after losing Steve Young to a concussion. If Kelly keeps losing, it won’t be unprecedented, at least in 49ers lore.
The Philadelphia Eagles canned Kelly after a second straight loss last December, and he had three-game losing streaks in each of his three seasons in Philly. But losses were scarce when Kelly coached the University of Oregon, who lost only six games in four seasons combined from 2009-12.
“(In college), you’re really getting ready for two or three big games a year, but in the National Football League, you have 16 big games a year,” Kelly told Tampa-area reporters last week. “Every single team has the ability to beat every other team.
“… Going against the best athletes in the world, going against the best coaches in the world, if you’re a competitor, that is the thing that excites you about (the NFL).”
Here are five aspects the 49ers must compete better at against the Bucs:
1. Colin Kaepernick’s “homecoming:” This will be Kaepernick’s first home start in a year, since a 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Oct. 22. Even more onus is on him now that running back Carlos Hyde won’t play because of a shoulder issue.
Instead of the 22-mph wind he struggled with in last Sunday’s 45-16 loss at Buffalo, Kaepernick should have much better conditions (partly sunny, 9 mph breeze) at Levi’s Stadium, where he’s gone 6-6 as a starter since 2014.
Kaepernick showed better pocket poise but still had accuracy issues against the Bills. He’ll face a Bucs defense that has only nine sacks. Their average of 262.4 passing yards per game would be a season high for the 49ers offense.
Kaepernick’s legs are more concerning to the Bucs, after he ran eight times for 66 yards in Buffalo. That said, he’s run for only two touchdowns in 157 carries since 2014; he had 12 touchdown runs in his first 180 carries, playoffs included.
“He’s a threat every time he drops back to run the football and that’s what really he does so well,” Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith said. “He sees a hole and he can take it. I still think he’s got good speed.”
2. Run stoppers: The 49ers generosity to opposing rushers is unrivaled in franchise history, having allowed a 100-yard back each of the past five defeats. Up next is Jacquizz Rodgers, who’s coming off his first 100-yard outing in 72 career games. Last week’s 312 rushing yards were the second most ever allowed by the 49ers.
“It’s crazy, because by watching on film, their defense is actually pretty good,” Rodgers told Tampa-area reporters. “… We’re not going to take them lightly.”
The 49ers have allowed nine rushing touchdowns, already more than they allowed in their 2011, ’12 and ’14 seasons. In 2011, they didn’t yield a rushing touchdown until Week 16. “Just to think 4 years ago we had some of the meanest nastiest players in SF that all gelled together like 1 big family,” former linebacker Larry Grant tweeted Sunday. “Good guys are gone.”
The only new guy on defense this game is likely inside linebacker Gerald Hodges, seeing how Nick Bellore’s and Michael Wilhoite struggled in Buffalo.
3. Smart returns: Kickoff returns are another problem area for the 49ers, who rank 29th with an average return of 17.5 yards. None of their 13 returns have been longer than 26 yards.
The 49ers have used six different returners, including last Sunday’s debuts of Torrey Smith and Keshawn Martin, neither of whom reached the 20 after taking it out of the end zone. “We would love to settle on a guy that you feel consistently gives you a great opportunity,” Kelly said. “But right now we haven’t found that.”
Do returners need to be reminded of this season’s rule change in which a touchback puts the ball at the 25-yard line? “I think they understand the rule,” Kelly responded. “They’re a pretty intelligent group we’ve got right there. They understand it.”
4. Win against Winston: Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston, last year’s offensive rookie of the year, makes his Levi’s Stadium entrance with a mediocre 75.9 passer rating this season. (Kaepernick’s is 77.8; Blaine Gabbert’s 69.6).
“I don’t think he’s as athletic as (Buffalo’s) Tyrod (Taylor) in terms of speed and things like that, but he’s not a statue back there by any stretch of the imagination,” Kelly said of Winston. “He’s still a pocket quarterback.”
When Winston has attempted over 32 passes, he’s 1-10 in his career, including 0-2 this season. Look for his total attempts to stay low, and not just because the 49ers run defense is more vulnerable. He can only throw so many times to Mike Evans (32 catches, 449 yards, four touchdowns). Vincent Jackson went on injured reserve this week, and Cecil Shorts (hamstring) is questionable.
“Their quarterback is very confident,” 49ers safety Eric Reid wrote on his personal blog. “He’s an athlete that makes great plays, and when he makes a bad play, it doesn’t bother him. When watching the tape, he doesn’t shy away from throws, and he takes chances deep because he believes in his receivers. There will be opportunities for us to create turnovers, and we must take advantage of those opportunities.”
5. Replace Hyde: The Carlos Hyde Replacement Tour is back for a second season, and the 49ers will rely on Shaun Draughn, Mike Davis and DuJuan Harris to fill in while Hyde rests his shoulder. Draughn proved capable last year (438 all-purpose yards in six starts).
Kelly has promised a rotation. This could be Davis’ first big chance — and he flashed in the exhibition season (8.1-yard average on 18 carries). However, Davis has no career starts and wasn’t inspiring last Sunday, especially when he got stopped on third- and fourth-and-1.
Harris got summoned Saturday from the practice squad to give them a third option. (Defensive tackle Taylor Hart was released in a corresponding roster move.) Harris has yet to play this season, but his 5-foot-8 frame fared well in the final two games last season, when he ran for 140 yards total and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. He started last season’s finale against the Rams, and his only other two career starts came in 2012 with the Green Bay Packers.
Whoever runs, the 49ers must block better than in recent games, and that includes right guard Joshua Garnett if he makes his second straight start and first at home. Kelly has said Garnett must improve all areas of his game. “I don’t mean it be disparaging, but he needs to improve everywhere,” Kelly said.
The same can be said of the 49ers’ widespread need for improvement — not to be disparaging.
