Stephen Curry closes games in the third quarter, not the fourth.
And he should get credit for that by winning the NBA Most Valuable Player Award this season; there, I said it.
In fact, I think Curry will be named MVP in a few weeks — the tide is turning his way, and the full breadth of his and the Warriors’ season-long accomplishments is becoming impossible to ignore.
Curry is joined by a tremendous cast of supporting players, of course; no player wins 60 out of 73 games by himself.
But the Warriors are now clearly, clearly the best team in the league, and everything they do revolves around their best player and unquestioned leader.
That’s something. That’s real. We’re watching it almost every game.
The Warriors, who play in Los Angeles against the Clippers on Tuesday, are now 60-13, have set a franchise-best victory total and just clinched the West’s No. 1 playoff seed.
And, oh, they are just killing good teams along the way.
So it’s becoming more and more obvious: Curry should win the MVP because he doesn’t play meaningful fourth-quarter minutes.
He destroys teams in the third quarter, just as he did to the Grizzlies in Memphis last Friday and as he has done almost all season.
If the argument is that Curry doesn’t play enough tight games — and contribute to the key moments in those games — because the Warriors are blowing out everybody, why can’t you point out that Curry closes out these games far earlier than the fourth?
You can. I will. He does.
Yes, I understand the MVP arguments for Houston’s James Harden, Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook and Cleveland’s LeBron James.
There are reasons to support each of those guys, and even throw in New Orleans’ Anthony Davis and the Clippers’ Chris Paul if you’d like. All good reasons and excellent players.
To break it down specifically, Harden — a monster scorer who has upped his defensive level this season and led Houston through a ton of injuries — is the likeliest challenger to Curry in this race.
But I believe Curry is the MVP for a few reasons:
The Warriors are a superior team specifically when Curry is in the game, and that’s how it has been this entire historic season.
(Harden is second in RPM, LeBron is third.)
Curry is plus-1.81 in defensive RPM, which, among the top MVP candidates, is behind only Davis’ plus-3.66. LeBron is at plus-1.68, and Harden is plus-0.90.
In 82 more attempts, Curry has made 66 more 3-pointers than has Harden.
A large part of why the Warriors are so good is that they make 3s at a great rate and they prevent easy 2s at a good rate, and Curry is a huge part of both.
Note: The player with the highest PER has won five of the last six MVPs, but the stat is definitely more kind to players who have missed significant time. (Derrick Rose won the MVP in 2011 despite having a PER that ranked ninth.)
The MVP won’t be Davis, who has missed 14 games and whose team likely will miss the playoffs, or Westbrook, who has missed 15 games and whose team is currently the eighth seed in the West.
If it’s down to Curry vs. Harden, Curry has the clear PER edge this season.
I know Curry doesn’t have traditionally dominant individual scoring and assist stats.
Some of that is because he doesn’t play as many minutes as the other top candidates (more than 300 fewer than Harden); some of it is because he has very good teammates who also carry consistent loads.
I also don’t buy that Harden or Westbrook should get the nod because of all the Houston and Oklahoma City injuries.
That would be a better argument if the Warriors didn’t have 10 more victories than the Rockets and 18 more than the Thunder, but they do.
Or if the Warriors didn’t go 4-0 against the Rockets and 3-1 against Oklahoma City this season, but they did.
Or if Curry didn’t play defense, but he does.
Or if Curry wasn’t by far the best player on the Warriors, but he is.
Or if all logic didn’t point to Curry winning the 2015 MVP, but it does.
Read Tim Kawakami’s Talking Points blog at blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami. Contact him at tkawakami@mercurynews.com or 408-920-5442. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/timkawakami.
By the numbers
How the potential NBA MVP candidates match up with season averages:
Through Monday’s games
Player G Pts Reb Ast Stl
Stephen Curry, GS 71 23.7 4.3 7.9 2.1
Anthony Davis, NO 59 24.7 10.4 2.0 1.5
James Harden, Hou 73 27.2 5.7 7.0 1.9
LeBron James, Clev 64 25.7 5.9 7.3 1.6
Chris Paul, LAC 74 18.8 4.6 10.1* 1.9
Russell Westbrook, OKC 59 27.6* 7.2 8.6 2.2
* leads league
